Cattle prices advanced for a third straight year in 2025, and more of the same can be expected this year, said Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension livestock marketing analyst, in a letter called Cow-Calf Corner.
Prices for all classes of cattle moved higher last year, setting frequent records for most of the first three quarters of the year before a fourth-quarter correction, Peel said. Cattle prices recovered in December and set the stage for markets in 2026.
2025 IN REVIEW
Oklahoma auction prices for 500-pound steer calves picked up from 2024 year-end highs and increased sharply in 2025, he said. Prices started the year at $353.45 per cwt and ended at $480.48, a 35.9% increase.
By the end of December, calf prices had recovered from the fourth quarter correction, when prices, at $479.89 per cwt by mid-October, fell to $413.71 at the end of November, a 13.7% drop, before recovering to a new high in December, Peel said.
Prices for 800-pound feeder steers at Oklahoma auctions began 2025 at $267.91 per cwt and ended with a December price of $349.89, an increase of 30.6%, he said. Feeder prices peaked earlier in mid-October at $382.93 per cwt, dropping to a late-November low of $315.97 before recovering partially in December.
The correction from October through November was 17.5% and the December recovery left prices down 8.6% from the October high, Peel said.
Fed cattle prices started 2025 at $198.93 per cwt, peaked at $244.25 in August and ending the year at $228.79, an increase of 15.0%, he said. The USDA’s five-market price drifted lower from the summer peak through the third quarter before hitting $211.53 per cwt in late November.
The fourth quarter correction was a drop of 13.4% to the November low, Peel said. Fed prices then recovered to finish the year, and, by the end of the year, fed prices were down 6.3% from the August peak.
Cull cow prices rose from $120.57 per cwt in January to a late August peak of $169.41 before finishing the year at $156.39, a 29.7% increase, he said. Cull cow prices also were subject to the fourth-quarter correction, dropping to a late November low of $147.17 before recovering in December.
Cull-cow prices dropped 13.1% from the summer high to late November but by the end of the year were down just 7.7% from the August peak, Peel said.
WHAT TO EXPECT
1) Higher Feeder, Fed Cattle Prices
Seven years of declining calf crops, culminating in the 2025 calf crop at the lowest level since 1941, and limited signs of heifer retention mean feeder cattle supplies will be tighter going into 2026 and may tighten even more during the year if heifer retention picks up, he said.
2) Prices Advancing More Slowly
Feeder and fed cattle prices, though expected to increase, are likely to increase relatively less in 2026 compared with 2025, Peel said. In 2025, feeder cattle prices increased roughly 25%-35% while fed cattle prices rose 15%-20%. Feeder and fed prices are likely to see prices increase in the range of 5%-15% in 2026.
3) Continued Volatility
Volatility likely will continue to be a risk for cattle producers, he said. The big fourth-quarter-2025 correction should remove the tendency for a market or technical correction for quite some time, but external sources of uncertainty likely will continue injecting volatility into cattle markets. With cattle and beef markets continuing to be a focus of political scrutiny, markets are subject to additional political rhetoric and meddling.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $232.66 per cwt to $237.00, compared with last week’s range of $231.21 to $235.55 per cwt. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $365.05 per cwt to $369.43, compared with $362.33 to $366.74.
The USDA choice cutout Thursday was up $1.34 per cwt at $367.45 while select was down $0.72 at $361.73. The choice/select spread widened to $5.72 from $3.66 with 72 loads of fabricated product and 23 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef as $404.45 per cwt, and 50% beef was $153.41.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $0.95 to $1.10 a bushel over the Mar corn contract, which settled at $4.24, down $0.02 1/4.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Monday was $367.41 per cwt, down $0.27. This compares with Wednesday’s Jan contract settlement of $363.22, up $0.60.