Today’s scheduled release of the Jan. 1 Cattle (Inventory) report from the USDA will have as much, or more, focus by the cattle and beef production industries as ever.
The report, scheduled for 2:00 pm CT, gives as good of an estimate as there is of the size of the US cattle herd on Jan. 1. It is of particular interest this time as many expect, or hope, the herd, last reported in July to be at its lowest point since 1973 at 94.2 million head, will show signs of growth.
SURVEY SAYS
This report usually doesn’t hit the futures market hard, since the ramifications are so far reaching, generally known and so changeable. However, it does reset databases and gives a launching point for many production and investment decisions going forward.
As a result, it’s hard to get market analysts to commit to forecasting the numbers in this report. Expana was able to query five market analysts and group their estimates for the Steiner Consulting Group to use in a Daily Livestock Report from the CME.
Those estimates, if confirmed by the USDA’s report, would show some signs that cow/calf producers were dipping their toes into investing in more cows. This was true for beef and dairy cows.
The analysts estimated the total cow inventory to be up 0.6% from Jan. 1, 2025. This isn’t much, and could be written off as a statistical anomaly, were it not for the extra estimates.
The beef cow herd was expected to be up 0.4% from last year, and the dairy cow herd was forecast to be up 1.1%. It should be noted that after years of culling, the US cow herd is relatively young with a lower percentage of older cows due to be cycled out because of age.
Further, the beef replacement heifers weighing 500 pounds or more in the herd were projected to be up by 1.7%, and the dairy heifer replacements of 500 pounds or more up by 0.7%. And, the “other heifers” category was expected to be down 2.4%.
That indicates that some heifers may have been targeted for the breeding herd on Jan. 1. They still could be sent to the feedlots if conditions change, but it’s a possible start.
The predicted steers and bulls in the herd were seen to be down 1.6% and 0.6%, respectively.
That left an expectation for the total US cattle herd to be down by 0.3% from last year with a calf crop that is down by 0.7%.
The lower calf crop is to be expected since heifers joining the cow herd won’t calve until next year.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $233.00 per cwt to $240.00, compared with last week’s range of $232.66 to $237.00 per cwt. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $365.91 per cwt to $371.92, compared with $365.05 to $371.88.
The USDA choice cutout Thursday was down $2.08 per cwt at $367.66 while select was down $2.85 at $360.72. The choice/select spread widened to $6.94 from $6.17 with 73 loads of fabricated product and 21 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef as $412.40 per cwt, and 50% beef was $153.38.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $0.95 to $1.10 a bushel over the Mar corn contract, which settled at $4.30 3/4, up $0.00 3/4.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Wednesday was $366.69 per cwt, up $2.70. This compares with Thursday’s Jan contract settlement of $369.17, up $1.07, and Mar’s $365.12, down $0.72.