With the US Supreme Court’s ruling that President Trump exceeded his power by implementing tariffs on many countries and products, concern has risen that China may not live up to its agreement to buy US beans because Brazil’s were much cheaper.
And, Brazil’s rise as a dominant force in global soybean markets has become a central concern for US producers, said Purdue University Agricultural Economists Joana Colussi and Michael Langemeier in a study on the university website. In the January 2026 Purdue University Ag Economy Barometer survey, 44% of farmers indicated they were “very concerned” and 36% reported being “concerned” about the competitiveness of US soybean exports versus Brazil’s.
Since surpassing the US as the world’s largest soybean producer in 2018, Brazil has continued to expand its presence in global export markets, Colussi and Langemeier said.
SOME COMPARISONS
Comparing the economics of soybean production in two major producing regions in the US and Brazil over the 2020–2024 period showed Brazil’s cost structure is heavily influenced by input-intensive tropical agriculture and dependence on imported fertilizers, the economists said. The US faces higher overhead costs driven primarily by elevated land values.
Although Brazil had significant cost increases between 2021 and 2022, strong soybean prices, local currency depreciation, and robust export demand helped sustain profitability during that period, the article said. Meanwhile, US soybean production generated strong margins in 2021 and 2022 but faced tighter or negative margins in other years, reflecting rising operating costs, high fixed land expenses and sensitivity to market price fluctuations.
Looking ahead, Brazil’s expansion into lower-cost frontier regions and continued infrastructure improvements may reinforce its cost advantage, the economists said. Meanwhile, maintaining US competitiveness will depend on productivity gains, cost- and risk-management strategies in an environment of input price uncertainty and strong global competition.
INPUT COST DIFFERENCES
Differences in technology adoption, input prices, soil fertility, trade policy restrictions, exchange rate effects, labor costs and capital market conditions lead to variation in input use across soybean farms in the US and Brazil, they said. Direct costs include seeds, plant protection, fertilizers, irrigation, crop insurance and drying and finance costs.
Operation costs comprise machinery, labor (hired and family), contractor costs, fuel and other energy expenses, the article said. Overhead costs consist of land, building depreciation, repairs and interest, property taxes, insurance, and miscellaneous expenses.
In Brazil, direct costs consistently accounted for the largest share, exceeding 60% of total costs on average during the 2020-24 period, the economists said. These costs reflect the country’s high expenditure on inputs, like fertilizers and crop protection.
In Brazil, where tropical agriculture predominates and much of soybean production is concentrated in the Cerrado region (Brazilian savanna), the need for chemical pest control and fertilizers to correct soil deficiencies gives these inputs a particularly large share of total production costs.
By contrast, overhead costs represent the largest cost component on US farms, accounting for nearly one-half of total costs during the 2020-24 period, they said. This large share primarily results from higher land costs, which experienced substantial appreciation over the last few years.
The main drivers of that appreciation include profitable corn–soybean production, a limited supply of cropland and strong investor demand capitalizing on rising land values, they said. Meanwhile, overhead costs accounted for about 25% of total costs in the Brazilian farm, reflecting lower land ownership costs.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $248.37 per cwt to $250.65, compared with last week’s range of $242.46 to $255.40 per cwt. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $388.23 per cwt to $391.91, compared with $381.78 to $394.78.
The USDA choice cutout Tuesday was up $8.21 per cwt at $377.43 while select was up $1.70 at $366.01. The choice/select spread widened to $11.42 from $4.91 with 81 loads of fabricated product and 21 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef as $430.07 per cwt, and 50% beef was $153.19.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $0.98 to $1.12 a bushel over the Mar corn contract, which settled at $4.27 3/4, up $0.00 3/4.
No live cattle delivery intentions were posted Tuesday.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Monday was $375.41 per cwt, down $0.39. This compares with Tuesday’s Mar contract settlement of $365.10, up $0.80.