The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service office in Brasilia, Brazil, said in a semi-annual report this week that it expected decreased 2026 Brazilian cattle slaughter because of the start of herd rebuilding from the bottom of the cattle cycle.
Producers were thought likely to begin holding cattle from the market, driving calf prices higher, the FAS post said. Solid beef exports were forecasted for 2026, following record exports in 2025.
Domestic consumption was forecast to decrease slightly, as producers may prioritize exports, driven by strong external demand, devalued local currency and challenges faced by foreign competitors.
The swine industry was expected to increase production and slaughter in 2026, the FAS said. As a result, the FAS post forecasted increased pork production and domestic consumption, as well as record exports in 2026.
CATTLE
Brazil is the second-largest cattle producing country in the world, the FAS said. The office there forecasted a calf crop of 47.2 million head in 2026, stable from 2025.
The FAS post estimated that increased heifer retention and lower cow slaughter would limit the availability of feeder cattle to populate feedlots and bring more beef to market. As in the US, the extra calves produced eventually catches up, and beef production increases, but this takes a few years.
Specifically, the FAS Brazilian office forecasted a 2% slaughter decrease in 2026 following increased slaughter in the previous years. Current large cull cow slaughter was expected to decrease as fewer old cows were culled from the herds.
Finally, the FAS office in Brasilia forecasted live cattle exports at 1.2 million head in 2026 on the back of strong foreign demand.
A Google search revealed that Brazil’s live cattle exports reached record highs in 2024 and 2025, driven by strong demand from Turkey and the Middle East. More than 788,000 head were exported from January to September in 2025.
BEEF
The FAS post forecasted that Brazil will remain the second-largest beef producer and the largest exporter in the world. However, a 2% production decrease in 2026 was expected, reaching 12.5 million tonnes Carcass Weight Equivalent, consistent with reduced cattle slaughter and the projected start of herd rebuilding.
The FAS forecasted a 1% decrease in 2026 beef consumption, reaching 8.3 million tonnes CWE because of reduced beef availability domestically and increased indebtedness of consumers.
The FAS forecasted a 5% decrease in 2026 beef exports, reaching 4.15 million tonnes CWE. This forecast considered diminished beef production from the start of herd rebuilding from the bottom of the cattle cycle, strong external demand, devalued Brazilian real and the effect of tariffs imposed by trading partners.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $243.70 per cwt to $249.00, compared with last week’s range of $247.79 to $251.69 per cwt. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $382.75 per cwt to $389.66, compared with $387.65 to $391.91.
The USDA choice cutout Thursday was down $1.68 per cwt at $386.89 while select was up $0.26 at $380.61. The choice/select spread widened to $6.28 from $8.22 with 72 loads of fabricated product and 24 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef as $432.01 per cwt, and 50% beef was $159.30.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were $0.90 to $1.05 a bushel over the May corn contract, which settled at $4.53 1/2, up $0.09 3/4.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Wednesday was $368.59 per cwt, down $0.34. This compares with Thursday’s Mar contract settlement of $362.60, down $1.32.