In its monthly World Supply and Demand Estimates report Thursday, the USDA said its 2026 total red meat and poultry production estimate was lowered.
The production estimate for both was lowered on projections for reduced slaughter.
BEEF PRODUCTION ESTIMATE TRIMMED
The beef production forecast was reduced as lower steer and heifer slaughter in the first half of the year may be offset partially by higher cow slaughter in the first two quarters and heavier dressed weights throughout the year.
Beef production for 2026 was estimated in Thursday’s WASDE report at 25.790 million pounds, down 20,000 pounds, or 0.08%, from the March projection of 25.810 million. The new estimate was down from the 2025 total of 26.001 million pounds by 211,000 pounds, or 0.81%.
Beef export estimates for the year were lowered because of the slow pace of shipments in early 2026 and the reduction of available supplies in the first half of the year. The new estimate was 2.365 million pounds, down 30,000 pounds, or 1.25%, from the March estimate of 2.395 million and down 212,000, or 8.23%, from 2025’2.577 million pounds.
The beef import estimate was raised 115,000 pounds, or 2.03%, to 5.790 million pounds from 5.675 million in the March report and up 319,000 pounds, or 5.83%, from 5.471 million in 2025 based on recent trade data and continued strong demand for lean processing beef.
PORK PRODUCTION FORECAST MIXED
The latest USDA outlook for 2026 hog slaughter reflected the information provided in the March 26 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report that indicated fewer farrowings through much of 2026.
The WASDE report listed a 2026 pork production estimate of 27.975 million pounds, down 300,000 pounds, or 1.06%, from the March report’s estimate of 28.275 million but up 398,000, or 1.44%, from 2025’s 27.577 million.
The 2026 pork export forecast was raised in the first quarter due to the latest trade data but are unchanged for the rest of the year. The 2026 estimate now stands at 7.200 million pounds, up 15,000, or 0.21%, from 7.185 million in the March report and up 230,000, or 3.30%, from 2025’s 6.970 million.
CHICKEN PRODUCTION ESTIMATE RAISED
The 2026 broiler production estimate was raised from the March report on the recent pace of slaughter and heavier weights through the start of the year. The latest estimate was for an industry output of 48.900 million pounds, up 200,000 pounds, or 0.41%, from 48.700 million in the March report and up 894,000, or 1.86%, from 2025’s 48.006 million.
The 2026 turkey production estimate was raised on recent hatchery data, to 4.955 million pounds, compared with 4.930 million in last month’s report and up from 2025 production of 4.844 million pounds.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $235.00 per cwt to $248.29, compared with last week’s range of $234.90 to $243.63 per cwt. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $373.20 per cwt to $388.53, compared with $370.42 to $377.81.
The USDA choice cutout Thursday was up $1.43 per cwt at $381.09 while select was down $0.70 at $381.57. The choice/select spread remained inverted at minus $0.48 from minus 2.61 with 111.64 loads of fabricated product and 33 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef as $457.13 per cwt, and 50% beef was $181.50.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $0.90 to $1.05 a bushel over the May corn contract, which settled at $4.44, down $0.03 1/4.
Three steer contracts were tendered for delivery Thursday.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Wednesday was $364.10 per cwt, down $0.45. This compares with Thursday’s Apr contract settlement of $372.52, up $1.85.