A constant question agricultural economists have fielded over the last few months concerns beef demand. Specifically, if retail prices have hurt demand.
Economists will say that actual “demand” is difficult to measure, especially in the short run. Demand may remain constant, but the ability to pay may fluctuate. And, consumption is not a true measure of demand since something that really isn’t demanded is all that can be afforded.
PRICE RECORDS SET
University of Tennessee Agricultural Economist Charley Martinez wrote in the Livestock Marketing Information Center’s In The Cattle Markets that last year, new retail price records were set basically every month.
The Retail All Fresh Beef Demand Index is an economic indicator that measures US consumer demand for fresh beef by combining per-capita consumption, retail beef prices and inflation adjustments to capture how much consumers are willing to buy at given price levels.
The Index relies on inputs like the “all‑fresh retail beef price,” which the USDA’s Economic Research Service defines as a composite value representing the average retail value of total beef production, Martinez said. It also incorporates per-capita beef consumption and CPI data, allowing demand to be tracked consistently over time and making increases or decreases in the index a reflection of real underlying shifts in consumer willingness to pay rather than changes in price or consumption alone.
Since 2000, long‑run trends revealed distinct decade‑to‑decade shifts in consumer behavior using 2000 as the baseline. Martinez said that from 2000 to 2010, demand first strengthened, peaking at 114 in 2004, but then declined steadily to 92 in 2010, suggesting a combination of economic pressures, shifting dietary preferences and competitive protein markets, all of which likely weakened consumers’ willingness to pay during the later years of that decade.
In contrast, 2010 to 2020 marked a clear recovery, with the index rising from its historical low back into the 104–111 range by the mid‑2010s and reaching 119 in 2020, he said, indicating improving economic conditions, increased consumer interest in high‑quality protein and possibly more effective retail merchandising.
The early portion of the current decade, 2020 to 2025, stands out even more dramatically, Martinez said Demand not only remains elevated but has increased to record‑breaking levels, peaking at 138 in 2025, he said. This rapid acceleration suggests strong consumer confidence, continued preference for beef despite rising prices and expanded availability of premium cuts and convenient retail formats.
Taken together, the long‑term trajectory shows a U‑shaped pattern from early growth (2000–2004), to recession‑linked softness (2005–2010), followed by sustained and then exceptional strengthening in the 2010–2025 period, ultimately reflecting how evolving economic conditions, inflation‑adjusted pricing and shifting perceptions of beef’s nutritional and culinary value shaped demand over time, Martinez said.
So, even as retail beef prices reached record-breaking levels in 2025, consumer demand has shown remarkable resilience, refusing to decline meaningfully despite conditions that would normally weaken purchasing, he said.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers last week ranged from $248.27 per cwt to $249.59, compared with the previous week’s range of $235.00 to $248.29 per cwt. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $387.11 per cwt to $390.27, compared with $373.20 to $388.53.
The USDA choice cutout Monday was up $1.02 per cwt at $381.92 while select was up $2.30 at $383.64. The choice/select spread remained inverted at minus $1.72 from minus 0.44 with 44 loads of fabricated product and 26 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef as $444.39 per cwt, and 50% beef was $177.19.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were up $0.10 to $0.12 at $1.02 to $1.15 a bushel over the May corn contract, which settled at $4.40 1/4, down $0.00 3/4.
No new live cattle contracts were tendered for delivery Monday. Three steer contracts were retendered for delivery at two, and three were reclaimed at two.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Friday was $373.94 per cwt, up $7.27. This compares with Monday’s Apr contract settlement of $374.47, up $0.32.