Last year could turn out to be the high-water mark in US beef disappearance and per-capita US beef consumption, according to estimates by the Livestock Marketing Information Center in Denver.
Total beef disappearance in 2024 and 2025 surpassed 2022’s total, but it is projected lower this year and next year, even though 2026’s estimated disappearance still would be greater than 2022.
NO CLEAR SUPPLY/SIDE REASON
A look at the LMIC’s spreadsheet on quarterly beef supply and utilization, there is no clear supply side reason for the projected decline in beef disappearance. As annual beef production declined, imports rose, and exports slid.
That leaves price as a sticking point, a market analyst said. Retail beef prices have risen as the US cattle herd has declined and domestic beef supplies were crimped.
Consumers, however, stuck with beef, especially choice or prime graded beef, until the last quarter of last year, the analyst said. At that point, they began shifting away from the higher-priced choice or prime beef narrowing the wholesale price spread between choice and select grade beef.
US beef production last year totaled 26.071 billion pounds, down from 27.054 billion in 2024, which was up slightly from 27.039 billion in 2023, which was down from 28.363 billion in 2022.
That joined with beginning stocks of 602 million pounds in 2025, 638 million pounds in 2024, 723 million in 2023 and 676 million in 2022. Add to this annual beef imports of 5.471 million pounds in 2025, 4.635 million in 2024, 3.725 million in 2023 and 3.390 million in 2022.
So, total US beef supply in 2025 was 32.143 billion pounds in 2025, 32.327 billion in 2024, 31.487 billion in 2023 and 32.428 billion in 2022.
DEMAND HARD TO MEASURE
Economists say actual demand is hard to measure because it represents a psychological desire rather than a physical outcome. Supply and disappearance can be measured, but disappearance, or sales, is not a measure of demand.
Many have said “demand” can only be illustrated, not measured, in longer-term metrics that reflect buying desire.
But, leaving the psychology out of it, balancing supply against price can give an idea of consumer buying interest. As prices go up, they eventually reach a point at which a buyer will not be willing, or able, to pay for a certain item.
In the case of beef, the most expensive protein in the meat caser, consumers appear to be showing some hesitation to pay for choice beef and more of a willingness to substitute select beef or other meats as prices for other things in their lives reduce their ability to pay up for choice.
The cure for high prices really is high prices.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $246.87 per cwt to $250.77, compared with last week’s range of $245.55 to $252.00 per cwt. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $388.13 per cwt to $389.43, compared with $386.05 to $397.06.
The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was down $0.85 per cwt at $388.05 while select was down $2.53 at $386.25. The choice/select spread widened to $1.80 from $0.12 with 90 loads of fabricated product and 26 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef as $458.12 per cwt, and 50% beef was $191.39.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.08 to $1.20 a bushel over the May corn contract, which settled at $4.66 1/2 a bushel, up $0.01 1/4.
No live cattle contracts were tendered for delivery Wednesday.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Tuesday was $369.80 per cwt, up $0.18. This compares with Wednesday’s Apr contract settlement of $372.27, up $0.20, and May’s $371.50, down $0.22.