Prior to the border closing in November 2024, annual US imports of Mexican cattle had averaged 1.18 million head in the previous decade and 1.12 million head per year in the previous 35 years, said Oklahoma State University Extension Marketing Specialist Derrell Peel.
Mexican cattle imports equaled 3.4% of the total US calf crop from 2015-2024 and 3.1% since 1990, Peel said. The brief border opening in 2025 allowed about 230,000 head to cross, 0.7% of the 2025 calf crop.
SEASONAL IMPORTS BIMODAL
The typical pattern is bimodal with peaks in March and again in November/December, he said. Calves carried over from the previous year typically are exported in the first half of the year with relatively few exported in the heat of the summer. New-crop calves start to be exported in the final months of the year, carrying over into the next year.
The largest port is Santa Teresa, NM, which accounted for nearly 43% of cattle crossing, Peel said. Along with the Columbus port, New Mexico accounted for more than 53% of total cattle imports.
The ports at Nogales and Douglas in Arizona represented another 27.5% of cattle crossings, he said. The six ports in Texas accounted for 19.2% of total Mexican cattle imports. The largest Texas port is Presidio/Ojinaga with 7.7% of the total.
RUMORS, RUMORS
Rumors are swirling that the border could open soon, probably with the phased plan to open ports from west to east over time, Peel said. How much and how fast can cattle imports recover? How fast is…not very.
It will take several weeks for border facilities to restaff and have USDA-APHIS personnel in place to inspect and clear paperwork for crossing cattle, he said. It takes time (and cost) for Mexican producers to prepare cattle and the paperwork needed for crossing.
It’s not clear how aggressive Mexican producers will be until they have a sense of how stable the border situation might be, Peel said. By the time cattle can begin crossing it will be close to the heat of summer, which is likely to limit crossings. If it starts relatively soon numbers of cattle imports could begin to recover significantly by fall.
WHAT DOES THAT LOOK LIKE?
Exactly what that recovery looks like, and the numbers expected is uncertain, Peel said. Mexico has continued to adapt since the border has been closed, utilizing previously exported cattle in domestic markets.
Mexico has developed significant cattle feeding and packing infrastructure in the past 25 or so years, he said. More infrastructure investment is underway.
Mexico is the eighth largest beef producing country and the seventh largest beef consuming country, Peel said. Mexico is the no. 11 beef exporting country and beef exports have grown more than 10 times in the past 20 years.
US imports of Mexican cattle are part of an increasingly integrated cattle and beef trade relationship between Mexico and the US, he said. Mexican cattle imports have been important for many decades. In the 1980’s Mexico became a significant beef export market for the US and currently is the no. three beef export market.
More recently, after 2010, Mexico has become a significant source of US beef imports, currently the no. four source of beef imports, Peel said. Cattle and beef trade between the US and Mexico are interrelated markets so the current disruption in cattle movement across the border may have a variety of effects in the future.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $252.53 per cwt to $257.00, compared with last week’s range of $246.00 to $250.77 per cwt. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $390.92 per cwt to $402.30, compared with $385.81 to $392.76.
The USDA choice cutout Tuesday was up $0.78 per cwt at $392.34 while select was up $1.64 at $392.24. The choice/select spread narrowed to $0.10 from $0.96 with 82 loads of fabricated product and 26 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef as $450.61 per cwt, and 50% beef was $187.03.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.08 to $1.20 a bushel over the Jul corn contract, which settled at $4.80 a bushel, down $0.05 3/4.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Monday was $375.33 per cwt, down $0.21. This compares with Tuesday’s May contract settlement of $371.82, up $5.22.