The total US red meat and poultry production forecast for 2026 was raised from a month ago, as higher broiler production estimates more than offsets ideas of lower red meat production, the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service said in its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand report Thursday.
BEEF PRODUCTION ESTIMATE LOWERED
The 2026 beef production estimate was lowered to 25.438 billion pounds from 25.547 billion in the May report and from 2025’s 26.003 billion, as the slow rate of steer and heifer slaughter was expected to continue through the second quarter and into the third quarter. The cow slaughter estimate also was reduced for the remainder of the year.
Heavier dressed weights, producing more beer, partially offset the reductions in slaughter.
For 2027, the beef production estimate was raised to 25.385 billion pounds from 25.310 billion last month, as predictions for increased feedlot placements and reduced 2026 marketings would result in more fed cattle being available for slaughter. However, it remained less than the current 2026 production estimate.
The beef export forecast was lowered for the second quarter of 2026 based on recent trade data but are unchanged for the remainder of the year, leaving a 2026 estimate of 2.341 billion pounds, versus 2.361 billion last month. Reduced beef export expectations were carried into 2027 for an estimate of 2.325 billion pounds. Beef import forecasts were unchanged for 2026 and 2027 at 6.109 billion pounds and 6.000 billion, respectively.
PORK PRODUCTION ESTIMATE RAISED SLIGHTLY
The 2026 pork production estimate was raised slightly to 27.995 billion pounds from 27.985 billion last month, as reduced second-quarter slaughter estimates are more than offset by heavier dressed weights. However, it remained higher than 2025’s production of 27.578 billion pounds.
The 2027 pork production estimate was raised to 28.290 billion pounds from 28.255 billion last month on ideas of slightly heavier dressed weights. This also would be more than the current 2026 estimate.
The USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report is scheduled for release on June 25 and could provide an indication of producer farrowing intentions for the remainder of 2026 that signal hog supply and pork production conditions for the first half of 2027.
Pork export forecasts were raised for the second quarter of 2026 based on strong shipments to key markets reported in recent trade data but were left unchanged for the remainder of 2026 and into 2027. The current 2026 and 2027 export estimates were 2.252 billion pounds and 7.330 billion pounds, respectively.
CHICKEN PRODUCTION ESTIMATE RAISED
The 2026 broiler production estimate was raised on recent slaughter and hatchery data, as well as supportive margins.
The 2027 broiler production estimate was raised, as favorable returns were expected to carry into 2027.
Broiler export forecasts were raised for the second and third quarters of 2026 on recent trade data and improved demand in several key markets. Broiler export forecasts for 2027 were left unchanged.
The 2026 turkey production estimate was lowered on recent hatchery data. The 2027 turkey production estimate was unchanged.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $256.71 per cwt to $260.37, compared with last week’s range of $256.34 to $262.23 per cwt. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $403.28 per cwt to $408.57, compared with $403.95 to $409.71.
The USDA choice cutout Thursday was down $0.08 per cwt at $393.21 while select was down $2.46 at $373.25. The choice/select spread widened to $19.96, from $17.58 with 97 loads of fabricated product and 12 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef as $458.25 per cwt, and 50% beef was $194.38.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.20 to $1.45 a bushel over the Jul corn contract, which settled at $4.11 3/4 a bushel, down $0.07 1/4.
No live cattle contracts were tendered for delivery Thursday.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Wednesday was $370.10 per cwt, up $2.04. This compares with Thursday’s Aug contract settlement of $359.65, up $5.27.