Cash prices for 700- to 800-pound medium and large No. 1 feeder steers in the Southern Plains are rangebound, according to data from the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service and compiled by the Livestock Marketing Information Center in Denver. And, they may remain rangebound.
Caught between $350 and $400 per cwt, the price for those feeder steers has bounced around since Jan. 1, the USDA data showed.
UNLIKE OTHER RECENT YEARS
The rangebound move is at odds with last year and the 2020-2024 average, an LMIC graph showed. Last year, the price angled upward unevenly, setting an annual peak in October. From there, the price dropped and began to recover into the 2026 range in late December.
The five-year average has the price of 700- to 800-pound feeders in the Southern Plains rangebound as well, cut there is a seasonal gain through the first six months of the year before leveling off around $195 per cwt.
Last year, the price for the 700- to 800-pounders began around $265 per cwt and moved unevenly upward to its peak at about $390 in mid-October.
IS A BREAKOUT POSSIBLE?
A breakout from this year’s price range will take a change in supply or demand, a market analyst oversimplified the situation.
A change in supply can come two ways, either the US drought ends to allow cow/calf producers to begin holding heifers back for breeding, or the Mexican border is reopened to allow heifers to move north, the analyst said. In no case will a change in feeder cattle availability happen quickly.
The National Weather Service’s weekly Drought Monitor gives no hint that the drought in the contiguous 48 states will end any time soon. In fact, rains that do pass through drought-stricken areas don’t seem to swing the needle much at all.
That all means, heifers will continue to come to market for feedlots to buy at something approaching the current rate, the analyst said. Cow/calf producers may want to keep a few with good genetics back for breeding, but they lack the grass.
Now that New World Screwworm is in the US, some have clamored for the Mexican border to reopen to feeder cattle moving north. This would bring some feeder cattle into the US and help some feedlots fill some of their pens, but the recovery to pre-NWS levels will be sluggish, the analyst said. It’s true that US prices may look attractive, but the cattle industry there has found other outlets for their calves that may preclude moving them north immediately.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers last week ranged from $256.14 per cwt to $260.00, compared with the previous week’s range of $256.28 to $264.00 per cwt. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $405.63 per cwt to $410.81, compared with $401.64 to $410.90.
The USDA choice cutout Thursday was down $4.19 per cwt at $387.07 while select was down $2.26 at $367.43. The choice/select spread narrowed to $19.64, from $21.57 with 95 loads of fabricated product and 17 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef as $465.43 per cwt, and 50% beef was $181.85.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.23 to $1.43 a bushel over the Jul corn contract, which settled at $4.25 a bushel, up $0.04.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Wednesday was $371.25 per cwt, down $5.74. This compares with Thursday’s Aug contract settlement of $360.62, down $3.52.