Last week’s attention to President Donald Trump’s new tariffs and the resulting drops in stocks, commodities and even gold, prompted Colorado State University Agricultural Economist Stephen Koontz to focus on the USDA’s prospective plantings report.
In an article for the Livestock Marketing Information Center’s newsletter In The Cattle Markets, Koontz said the report had implications for future feedstuffs supplies and the subsequent effect on cattle markets.
HAY ACREAGE SHRINKING
The area of acreage intended for harvesting hay continued to shrink, Koontz observed. The prospectives for this year were estimated at 48.493 million acres.
The largest reductions were associated with Texas, Nebraska, Kansas and Colorado, he said. These are areas important for cow/calf production and were affected by drought.
That was roughly a 2% decline in harvested acres from 49.390 million in 2024, Koontz said, and continued the reduction from 52.771 million in 2023. The reduced hay acres harvested are typical with much lower hay prices – some of the lowest in the last six years – and increased availability of pasture.
“SUBSTANTIAL” BOOST IN CORN ACRES
The acres committed to corn planting showed a substantial increase from 2024, Koontz said. Prospective plantings of corn in 2025 were estimated at 95.326 million acres, a 5% increase from the 90.594 million acres the prior year.
Pre-report expectations averaged 94.4 million acres with a range of 92.5 to 96.6 million, he said. The USDA Ag Outlook Forum forecasted 94.0 million acres.
Simple work on the 25/26 corn balance sheet – with trend yields and 8 million acres to silage or abandoned – suggest production of about 15.9 billion bushels, Koontz said. If usage is similar to the prior year or modestly greater, then stocks-to-use should expand to 14.7% compared with the current 10.2%.
Better-than-trend yields will push stocks-to-use to a point higher than 17%, he said. The prospective acres are substantial enough that with good yields the coming harvest price of corn has the potential to spend much time with a 3 as the first number. And this is without worrying about corn exports.
CORN/SOYBEAN PRICE BALANCE
The insurable price of corn relative to soybeans has created a potentially substantial improvement in feed supplies, Koontz said. This could benefit all protein producers in the coming year.
However, actual expansion in the cow herd will require better moisture and pasture in the southern plains than has been observed so far this spring, he said. Cow slaughter and heifer placement remain soft.
But that is with only information through a portion of the first quarter, Koontz said. Events through April and May will be interesting to observe.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $208.00 per cwt to $213.76, compared with last week’s range of $210.15 to $214.47 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $328.93 per cwt to $333.20, compared with $329.75 to $339.08.
The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was down $0.24 per cwt at $337.86 while select was off $1.45 at $320.61. The choice/select spread widened to $17.25 from $16.04 with 122 loads of fabricated product and 33 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $377.92 per cwt, and 50% beef was $117.08.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.20 to $1.32 a bushel over the May corn contract, which settled at $4.74, up $0.05.
No live cattle were tendered for delivery Wednesday.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Tuesday was $290.61 per cwt, up $0.08. This compares with Wednesday’s Apr contract settlement of $283.75, up $3.32.