The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer reading jumped to 153 in July, up 27 points from June and up 52 points from May on improved expectations for current economic conditions, according to a university release.
Results are based on a survey of 400 agricultural producers across the US conducted from July 15 through 19, which was prior to the USDA’s announcement of 2019 MFP payment rates.
CURRENT-CONDITIONS INDEX UP
The Index of Current Conditions, a sub-index of the barometer, rose 44 points in July to 141, the largest one-month gain since data collection began in October of 2015, the release said. The barometer’s other sub-index, the Index of Future Expectations also increased, rising 18 points from June, to a reading of 159.
PREVENT PLANT ACRES UP
This month’s barometer survey asked corn and soybean growers if they were taking a prevented planting payment on any of the corn or soybean acreage they intended to plant in 2019, the release said. Although the USDA extended its deadline to report prevented plantings to July 22 in affected states, most farmers completed their prevented planting claims by USDA’s original deadline of July 15 and were able to provide an accurate reading on their prevented planting acreage when this month’s ag barometer survey was conducted.
Twenty-five percent of corn and soybean growers said they were filing a prevented planting claim on some of their intended corn acreage while 24% said they are filing a prevented planting claim on some of their soybean acreage, the release said.
Sixty-one percent of the farmers filing a prevented corn planting claim said their prevented planting totaled 15% or more of their intended corn acreage, and 42% said they did not plant 25% or more of their intended acreage, the release said.
Meanwhile, 39% of soybean growers submitting a prevented planting claim said they did not plant 15% to 25% of their intended soybean acreage, the release said. In contrast to corn growers, however, just 2% of soybean farmers with a prevented planting claim said they were not able to plant 25% or more of their intended soybean acreage.
INVESTMENT INDEX UP
The Large Farm Investment Index rose 25 points to 67, from June and 30 points from May, marking the largest two-month gain in the index since data collection began in fall 2015 and the highest reading for the index since February 2018, the release said.
Sentiment spilled over into expectations for increased land values, the release said. The percentage of producers expecting land values to increase in the upcoming 12 months jumped from 10% in June to 21% in July, the highest since February 2018.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
Cash cattle traded in Iowa Monday at $114 per cwt on a live basis, steady to down $2 from last week.
Cattle traded in the Plains last week at $111 per cwt on a live basis, down $1 from the previous week, and at $114 to $116 in Nebraska, steady to down $1. Dressed-basis trading occurred at $183 to $185 per cwt, steady to up $2.
The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was up $0.71 per cwt at $216.49, while select was up $0.06 at $192.71. The choice/select spread widened to $23.78 from $23.13 with 109 loads of fabricated product sold into the spot market.
No cattle were tendered for delivery against the Aug contract Wednesday.
The CME Feeder Cattle index for the seven days ended Tuesday was $141.61 per cwt, down 40.04 from the previous day. This compares with Wednesday’s Aug contract settlement of $139.55, down $0.42.