Am Artificial Intelligence US summer forecast “suggests trend toward warmer-than-average conditions, particularly across the West, with some potential for cooler-than-normal weather in the north and east.”
That is a bit scarry for those looking for a large boost in heifer retentions and cattle herd rebuilding this year, for a significant portion of US grazing land is in the West.
VARIOUS FORECASTS
The warmest areas could be the Northwest, northern Rockies and High Planes, where significant heat with prolonged periods of temperatures exceeding 90 degrees Fahrenheit.
At the same time, the northern and eastern US might see normal to below-normal temperatures at times, depending on the position of any given low-pressure area, the AI forecast said.
In the short term, rain, wet soils and cool temperatures could delay spring planting in the Midwest, a private forecaster said. And, a weekend snowstorm left parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota blanketed with six to 16 inches of snow.
But current wet or snowy conditions won’t keep US farmers down for long, and they can get a lot of ground planted in a short period of time, so there’s little cause for concern just yet, a market analyst said. It’s just something to watch.
RAIN AND OTHER HAZARDS
Longer-range forecasts indicate to AI that a drier-than-average summer can be expected for parts of the West, increasing the risk of wildfires.
The Southern Plains, Gulf Coast and parts of the Southeast could see increased thunderstorms and above-average rainfall, according to the AI forecast.
But a lot of the eventual weather patterns this summer depend on water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. Severe Weather Europe said on its website that a super El Nino is starting to form, affecting the warm season weather patterns.
The way the La Nina dissolved, making way for the rapidly developing El Mino, suggest a super El Nino could be there by the second half of the year, Severe Weather Europe said. This kind of intense warming of the Pacific Ocean could affect temperatures and precipitation across North America, Europe and the rest of the Northern Hemisphere this summer.
A study of past years of rapid transition from La Nina to El Nino with a stratospheric wind change that also is developing show a tendency for a low-pressure area somewhere over the eastern US or Canada and over the southwestern US. This supports a more northerly flow, keeping summer temperatures normal to below normal over the northern and eastern US.
The data also hints that below-normal temperatures could trend over the northern and eastern US and eastern Canada with warmer temperatures over the northwestern and southern US and western Canada.
The rainfall pattern suggested by past analog years shows more rain over the northeastern and western US and less rainfall over the Pacific Northwest and southern and east-central US, Severe Weather Europe said.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $246.41 per cwt to $246.79, compared with last week’s range of $234.90 to $243.63 per cwt. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $378.68 per cwt to $378.83, compared with $370.42 to $377.81.
The USDA choice cutout Friday was up $0.26 per cwt at $388.04 while select was up $2.18 at $386.19. The choice/select spread inverted to minus $0.33 from positive $1.59 with 61 loads of fabricated product and 15 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef as $442.88 per cwt, and 50% beef was $176.46
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $0.90 to $1.05 a bushel over the May corn contract, which settled at $4.54, up $0.01 3/4.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Friday was $364.55 per cwt, down $3.04. This compares with Monday’s Apr contract settlement of $372.02, down $0.87.