US all hay supplies this year are projected to continue rising following two years of gains from the recorded bottom in 2022.
Data from the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service and forecasts by the Livestock Marketing Information Center in Denver projected total stocks from 2025 production and carryover from last year to be 146.19 million short tons. This would be up 9.39 million tons, or 6.86%, from last year’s 136.80 million tons and up 16.45 million tons, or 12.7%, from the 2022 low of 129.74 million.
GREATER PRODUCTION SEEN
While carryover hay supplies on May 1 (the beginning of the crop year) vary more on a percentage basis, the greater actual variations in crop-year supplies comes in annual hay production. This year, production was estimated at 125.18 million tons, up 2.72 million, or 2.22%, from 122.46 million last year and up 13.44 million, or 12.03%, from the record annual low production in 2022 of 111.74 million.
Carryover this year was estimated at 21.01 million tons, up 6.68 million, or 46.6%, from 14.33 million last year and up 3.00 million, or 16.7%, from 2022’s 18.01 million.
DISAPPEARANCE SEEN UNEVENLY HIGHER
Hay disappearance for the 2025 crop year was expected to be up from last year and the 2022 low, but not without a dip last year. There was no parabolic rise in the graph of disappearance.
2025 crop year all-hay disappearance was forecast at 122.18 million short tons, up 6.39 million, or 5.52%, from 115.79 million last year, up 1.15 million, or 0.95%, from 121.03 million in 2023 and up 9.21 million, or 8.15%, from 2022’s record low 112.97 million tons.
DEC. 1 HAY STOCKS HISTORICALLY LOW
Dec. 1, 2024, hay stocks were the third lowest on record going back to 1999 at 76.72 million short tons. This was up 4.96 million tons, or 6.91%, from the record-low stocks of 71.76 million tons in 2023 but down 2.3 million, or 2.91%, from 2022’s 79.02 million.
There was no estimate for Dec. 1, 2025, all hay stocks.
Of the Dec. 1 hay stocks, 2024’s alfalfa hay production was pegged at 49.84 million short tons, very close to 2023’s 49.77 million and 2022’s short 48.84 million.
Other hay production showed more variability. In 2024, other hay production was recorded at 72.62 million tons, up 3.80 million, or 5.52%, from 68.82 million in 2023 and up 9.72 million, or 15.5%, from 2022’s short 62.90 million.
The US Drought Monitor from the National Weather Service shows drought building in the Southwestern US with tendrils reaching into the central and northern Plains. This could affect hay production negatively this year, a market analyst said.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $226.49 per cwt to $227.03, compared with last week’s range of $220.00 to $231.49 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $351.41 per cwt to $357.98, compared with $348.05 to $365.35.
The USDA choice cutout Monday was down $0.34 per cwt at $366.00 while select was up $1.46 at $358.11. The choice/select spread narrowed to $7.89 from $9.69 with 90 loads of fabricated product and 32 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $380.89 per cwt, and 50% beef was $133.40.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.15 to $1.25 a bushel over the Jul corn contract, which settled at $4.38 1/4, down $0.05 3/4.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Friday was $301.13 per cwt, up $1.83. This compares with Monday’s Aug contract settlement of $301.75, up $2.92.