An anticipated shortfall of slaughter-ready cattle may have begun late last year, if Kansas feedlot closeouts are the “canary in the mine” for such an event.
Data from Kansas feedlots collected by the Kansas State University Extension service and compiled and published by the Livestock Marketing Information Center in Denver show November feedlot closeouts, or sales to beef packers, going against the historical trend and sliding below November 2022.
The KSU Extension service collects data monthly from select feedlots around the state, and the data is forwarded to the LMIC to formulate the actions and performance of an “average” feedlot in the state. It’s this data that then is published in graph form by the LMIC.
NOVEMBER CLOSEOUTS DOWN
That average Kansas feedlot sold 3,515 head of finished steers to the packer in November, down 92, or 2.69%, from 3,423 in October, down 126, or 3.46%, from 3,641 in November 2022 and down 302, or 7.91%, from the 2017-2021 average of 3,817.
Normally, November Kansas feedlot steer closeouts rise from an October seasonal low followed by an even steeper increase in December to one of the largest monthly totals of the year.
Last year, October steer closeouts were the annual low point in the average Kansas feedlot’s activities with November and December closeouts rising sharply.
The number of heifers sold to packers in November rose from the unusual low in October to 2,787 head, down from 2,857 in 2022 and the 2017-2021 average of 3,709.
On average, the average Kansas feed yard sells more fed heifers in December than in November, nearly setting an annual high. This may not be the case for December 2023 with the wide gap between November closeouts and the average December number of 3,765 head.
FINAL WEIGHTS FOLLOW TREND
The final weight of the average steer exiting the average Kansas feedlot in November was 1,447 pounds, up 17, or 1.19%, from 1,430 in October but down eight, or 0.55%, from 1,455 pounds in November 2022 and down six, or 0.41%, from the previous five-year average of 1,453 pounds.
The final weight of heifers exiting Kansas feedlots in November was 1,295 pounds, compared with 1,293 in October, 1,321 in November 2022 and the 2017-2021 average of 1,300 pounds. If final weights follow the trend, they should move up in December, but they are unlikely to reach 2023’s lofty level of 1,341 pounds.
FEEDING EFFICIENCY DOWN
The pounds of feed per pound of gain on a dry basis for closed-out steers in November was 6.43, up from 6.11 pounds in November of 2022 and the previous five-year average of 6.09. Feed efficiency has been below average and last year since May, although it jumped sharply in July.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $173.57 per cwt to $175.23, compared with last week’s range of $172.00 to $175.59 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $270.02 per cwt to $275.14, compared with $269.19 to $274.88.
The USDA choice cutout Tuesday was up $1.33 per cwt at $280.16 while select was up $3.47 at $262.83. The choice/select spread narrowed to $17.33 from $19.47 with 78 loads of fabricated product and 23 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.25 to $1.35 a bushel over the Mar corn contract, which settled at $4.59 1/4 a bushel, up $0.04 1/4.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Monday was $227.69 per cwt, down $1.33. This compares with Tuesday’s Jan contract settlement of $223.77, down $0.10.