It appears that available Argentine beef supplies may limit the amount of extra exportable beef to the US to feed President Trump’s plan to lower retail beef prices.
The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service office in Buenos Aires, Argentina, said in a semi-annual report on Argentina’s livestock and products that 2026 Argentine beef exports were projected at 800,000 tons carcass weight equivalent, slightly less than the FAS Post’s earlier estimate of 830,000 tons.
Lower expected slaughter volumes likely will reduce beef supply, despite a significant increase in average slaughter weights, the FAS said. Inexpensive corn prices and very high cattle prices are encouraging producers to feed more corn, for a longer period, to as many cattle as possible.
In 2026, Argentina was expected to benefit from three key export developments: China’s recently announced beef import quotas, the US’ expanded low-duty tariff rate quota for Argentine beef and the EU-Mercosur free-trade agreement.
CATTLE SLAUGHTER ESTIMATE DECLINES
Argentina’s 2026 cattle slaughter was forecast at 13.0 million head, 700,000 head fewer than the FAS’s previous projection and 600,000 head less than in 2025, the FAS report said. Over the past three months, slaughter has declined by 9% to 10% compared with the same period last year.
A structural shift in the domestic cattle sector has pushed cattle prices close to record highs, the FAS said. As a result, producers across all production stages are retaining animals longer to increase weights, particularly given exceptionally high feeder prices.
Relatively low corn prices are further incentivizing additional feeding throughout the supply chain, the FAS said. Average carcass weight in 2026 was projected to increase by about six kilograms (about 13.2 pounds) — a significant change that reflects improved genetics, better nutrition and improved industry productivity and relatively lower costs per slaughtered animal.
CHINA DEMAND
Over the past several years, strong demand from China for beef has encouraged herd “clean-up,” with producers culling less productive cows, the FAS said. Current management strategies emphasize heavier weaning weights, expanded backgrounding programs and, increasingly, supplemental grain feeding to maximize weight gain.
Current (and expected) strong profitability is encouraging most cow calf operations to invest strongly in pastures, genetics and infrastructure, the FAS said. Backgrounding has become a key strategic segment of the industry, adding frame and weight at relatively low cost before feedlot finishing.
A large proportion of cattle entering feedlots now come from backgrounding operations, which traditionally relied on forage but increasingly are incorporating corn and other grains because of the favorable economics, the FAS said.
However, despite an inexpensive corn supply, feedlot margins remain tight, primarily because of elevated feeder cattle prices, the FAS said. Responding to the tight margins, meatpackers, particularly export-oriented processors, are expanding the period and number of cattle on feed to maximize weights and source for processing as needed.
There are growing cases of export meat packers buying finished light steers weighing 350 to 380 kilos (772 to 838 pounds) liveweight ready for the domestic market and sending them back to yards to add 120 to 150 more kilos (265 to 331 pounds) before slaughter.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $240.56 per cwt to $244.00, compared with last week’s range of $240.00 to $249.00 per cwt. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $379.67 per cwt to $382.97, compared with $382.75 to $389.66.
The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was up $2.03 per cwt at $396.70 while select was up $2.48 at $389.25. The choice/select spread narrowed to $7.45 from $7.90 with 71 loads of fabricated product and 15 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef as $437.98 per cwt, and 50% beef was $1720.31.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were $0.90 to $1.05 a bushel over the May corn contract, which settled at $4.60 1/4, up $0.08.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Tuesday was $364.80 per cwt, down $0.97. This compares with Wednesday’s Mar contract settlement of $348.72, down $4.62.