In spite of market volatility, the strong market fundamentals and current status of the US beef industry remain unchanged, and can be distilled into a few short bullet points:
- The lowest beef cow inventory since the early 1960s.
- The lowest number of feeder calves in the production chain since the 1950s.
- Strongest consumer beef demand in decades.
- Very little evidence (over past several calf crops) of heifer calves being retained for the next generation of cows.
ROBUST CATTLE VALUES
Oklahoma State University Extension Beef Cattle Breeding Specialist Mark Johnson said in a letter called Cow-Calf Corner that those factors indicated the current robust values of all classes of cattle (and beef) should continue for several years.
The biological time lag between heifer selection for cow replacements, and the 24 months before they would potentially wean their first calf to enter the production system makes for such long-range predictions, Johnson said. Furthermore, it is very likely the beef cow inventory of 2026 will be lower than 2025.
The current herd size is the result of droughts, the threat of New World Screwworm, the resilience of cattle producers, high input cost and the success of cattle breeders improving the genetics of US cattle to yield great tasting beef.
HEIFER DEVELOPMENT
In order to maximize profit, it is important to have heifers calving at two years of age, Johnson said. Research shows heifers becoming pregnant in the first 21 days of their first breeding season remain in the herd longer and produce more total calf weaning weight over their lifetime.
How do producers select and manage replacement heifers so they are having fertile heats and ready to conceive by 14 to 15 months of age? Johnson asked. Genetics, photoperiod, level of nutrition and growth rate all influence when heifers reach puberty. Heifers that have reached 65% of their mature weight by this age should have reached puberty and be ready to breed.
Age should be taken into account when selecting replacements, with older heifers having an advantage, Johnson said. Heifers born earlier in the calving season, are produced by cows that conceived earlier in the breeding season.
After heifers are selected, arriving at their breeding target weight is important, he said. Producers need an accurate estimate of the average mature weight of the cowherd that produced the heifers.
That can be calculated from weights taken at weaning on the four- to seven-year-old cows and adjusting to a Body Condition Score of five, Johnson said. If developing purchased heifers, targeting an optimum plane of growth having the heifers in a BCS of six by 14 to 15 months of age can be substituted.
In a normal Oklahoma year, spring-born heifers weaned in fall can be grown on wheat pasture typically available by late November and gain 1.5 pounds a day (or more) to reach target weight, Johnson said. If wheat pasture conditions are sporadic, heifers can grow very slowly through the winter months and fed harder for the couple of months going into breeding season to reach target weight by breeding season.
Target a body condition of six and 80% of their mature weight at first calving, he advised.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $227.18 per cwt to $231.74, compared with last week’s range of $229.81 to $239.00 per cwt. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $356.85 per cwt to $361.65, compared with $361.70 to $369.29.
The USDA choice cutout Tuesday was down $1.54 per cwt at $371.95 while select was down $1.35 at $354.95. The choice/select spread widened to $17.00 from $14.11 with 127 loads of fabricated product and 36 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef as $402.23 per cwt, and 50% beef was $181.07.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.05 to $1.20 a bushel over the Dec corn contract, which settled at $4.36 3/4, up $0.02.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Monday was $339.46 per cwt, down $2.43. This compares with Tuesday’s Nov contract settlement of $340.77, up $0.92.