Calendar year 2025 continues to develop and likely will be one cattle producers and feeders will remember for some time, said Glynn Tonsor, agricultural economist for Kansas State University, in a letter for the Livestock Marketing Information Center called In The Cattle Markets.
Cattle prices are up substantially, and many areas are greener and wetter than in recent years, Tonsor said. While good times indeed should be enjoyed, it is prudent to pause and take stock of key fundamentals at play.
Here, the extra-large role of beef demand again is worth highlighting, he said.
PRODUCER CATTLE RECEIPTS GROWING
Producer cattle receipt growth in 2024 was directly the result of higher beef demand, Tonsor said. Any time volume can be increased (carcass weight growth led to a small increase in beef production from 2023) AND increase prices per unit, demand has increased. This was precisely the case for beef in 2024.
The Meat Demand Monitor project, beef and pork checkoff supported and based at Kansas State University, since February 2020 has provided timely and novel insights on domestic meat demand that are fully available to all interested parties, he said. Most 2025 base MDM monthly reports have highlighted the direct role of macroeconomics and consumer financial sentiment.
Narrowly, households reporting improving finances are much more likely to include meat protein in prior day meals and spend much more on food away-from-home as compared to those reporting stable or deteriorating finances, Tonsor said. This still was the case in July with 19% reporting improving finances (the same as in June).
Interestingly, beef, pork an chicken consumption increased with better incomes, but chicken increased the most, followed by beef and then pork.
Improved economic conditions in the home being spent on better food are best observed in second- and third-world countries, a market analyst said. It has been known for years that people with more income will choose to spend more on food than other things they could, or should, spend it on. Better housing, clothing or transportation will wait as consumers improve their diets.
LINKING THINGS TOGETHER
Given ongoing developments in measures of the US macroeconomic situation, using the MDM to connect changes to meat demand relevance and ultimately producer bottom lines is highly encouraged, Tonsor said.
Yes, there are many reasons for cattle producers to smile today, but astute management starts with taking stock and accurately assessing one’s situation, Tonsor said. As summer wraps up, he hoped his readers could enjoy take note of the clear and critical role consumer demand has in producer economic vitality.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $243.04 per cwt to $243.32, compared with last week’s range of $239.00 to $245.20 per cwt. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $382.69 per cwt to $382.93, compared with $373.13 to $383.79.
The USDA choice cutout Tuesday was down $1.99 per cwt at $413.42 while select was down $3.83 at $386.17. The choice/select spread widened to $27.25 from $25.41 with 108 loads of fabricated product and 14 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $429.95 per cwt, and 50% beef was $166.93.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.30 to $1.40 a bushel over the Sep corn contract, which settled at $4.03, up $0.05.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Monday was $365.52 per cwt, up $1.05. This compares with Tuesday’s Sep contract settlement of $364.25, down $0.52.