Could beef imports from Argentina reduce beef prices in the U.S.? asked Oklahoma State University Livestock Marketing Specialist in a letter called Cow-Calf Corner. Following is an edited version of his analysis.
Argentina is the sixth largest beef producing country and the fifth largest beef exporting country, accounting for roughly 6% of global beef exports. Argentine beef production is about 27% of total US production.
In recent years, Argentine beef exports have been growing with the majority going to China along with Israel, the EU and the US
Argentina is the ninth largest source of beef imports in the US, accounting for about 2.1% of the total thus far in 2025. US imports of Argentine beef have been growing in recent years and were up 41.7% year over year through July (the latest data available since the shutdown).
How much more beef can the US import from Argentina?
It’s not clear how much capacity to increase beef exports exists currently in Argentina. Argentinian beef consumption uses 70% to 75% of their total production.
If, for example, the US doubled imports over 2024 levels, it likely would mostly be at the expense of domestic Argentinian consumption or other export markets for Argentine beef.
Such an increase in imports from Argentina would have a negligible effect on the total supply of beef in the US market. In fact, if the US took all of the projected 2025 Argentine beef exports (not likely), it would represent less than 2.5% of the total US beef supply.
The effect in U.S. beef markets
The majority of Argentine beef imports are lean processing beef used for ground beef production. This beef is quite similar to beef imported from Brazil and most other import sources.
Imports from Argentina are less than 10% of the imports from Brazil. Increasing imports from Argentina would have a very slight effect in offsetting the reduction in imports from Brazil expected because of the sharp increase in tariffs on Brazil.
The effects on beef imports from Brazil were not evident in the January-July import data and there have not been any updates since then. The August data should have been released in early October.
Record high cattle and beef prices are occurring despite record beef imports. Increased beef imports (mostly lean processing beef) partially offsets decreased non-fed US beef production, helping to moderate sharply higher ground beef prices and increasing utilization of fatty trimmings from US fed cattle.
Argentina is a relatively minor source of beef imports and potential increases would not change the overall supply of beef in the US significantly.
In short, it does not appear that increasing beef imports from Argentina would have any significant effects on US beef prices. At most, it might have a very slight (and probably undetectable) effect of moderating expected future increases in US ground beef prices.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $237.30 per cwt to $243.18, compared with last week’s range of $234.39 to $237.11 per cwt. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $368.29 per cwt to $380.59, compared with $365.05 to $373.86.
The USDA choice cutout Thursday was up $2.49 per cwt at $373.14 while select was up $1.13 at $354.74. The choice/select spread widened to $18.40 from $17.04 with 88 loads of fabricated product and 29 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef as $410.14 per cwt, and 50% beef was $146.02.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.00 to $1.10 a bushel over the Dec corn contract, which settled at $4.28, up $0.05.
No new live cattle delivery intentions were tendered Thursday.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Wednesday was $370.02 per cwt, down $1.38. This compares with Thursday’s Oct contract settlement of $363.35, down $1.72.