Growth in beef-on-dairy has raised several questions, but the effects on US beef production are small, said James Mitchel, Extension livestock economist at the University of Arkansas and Kenny Burdine, livestock specialist at the University of Kentucky, in a letter called In The Cattle Markets by the Livestock Marketing Information Center.
During the liquidation phase of a cattle cycle, beef-on-dairy will reflect a larger share of total fed cattle slaughter, the economists said. This is especially true as more dairies adopt beef-on-dairy crosses to improve the value of their calves.
A GROWING TREND
Recent estimates suggested beef-on-dairy represented 7% of 2022 cattle slaughter or 2.6 million head, the pair said. Beef-on-dairy could account for 15% of cattle slaughter by 2026.
It is important to recognize that beef-on-dairy does not change the number of calves born to dairy cows annually so it does not mean more cattle entering the beef production system.
Fed dairy as a percent of total fed cattle slaughter remained relatively constant from 2014 to 2023, ranging from 16% to 19%, the economists said. In 2023, fed dairy cattle slaughter was estimated at 4.67 million head or 19% of total fed cattle slaughter.
The increase in fed dairy relative to total fed slaughter from 2019 to 2023 was a function of the cyclical decline in cattle inventories – beef cattle numbers decreased while dairy cattle numbers increased, they said. As growth in beef-on-dairy continues, we will observe a decrease in traditional fed dairy cattle slaughter and an increase in beef-on-dairy cattle slaughter.
MORE COULD COME
Some extra data imply beef-on-dairy grew from 18%, or 738,000 head, in 2019 to 26%, or 1.12 million, in 2021, they said. More recently, the National Association of Animal Breeders reported sales of beef semen to the dairy industry totaling 7.9 million or 31% of total sales to dairy, including sexed, conventional and beef semen sales.
Since there likely is no significant cost difference from using beef semen in the dairy herd, it is not unrealistic to expect beef-on-dairy will become widely adopted over the next few years, they said.
As beef-on-dairy expands, a larger share of fed dairy slaughter will come from the latter, they said. If the adoption rate were 100%, this would equate to an estimated 4.67 million head of non-replacement dairy calves being beef-on-dairy cattle or about 19% of 2023 fed cattle slaughter.
But the supply of fed dairy cattle does necessarily increase; beef-on-dairy just represents an increasing proportion of that supply, they said.