Weekly beef production is down significantly from last year and the 2019-2023 average, and it’s heading lower at a time when it should be trending slowly higher.
Weekly production actually has been below last year since the first week in April, and weekly differences have been significant in nearly all weeks since then except for the weeks surrounding the Memorial Day and Independence Day holidays.
PRODUCDTION DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY
Weekly beef production last week amounted to 457.6 million pounds, down 5.1 million, or 1.10%, from 462.7 million the previous week, down 57.2 million, or 11.1%, from 514.8 million in the same week last year and down 75.3 million, or 14.1%, from the previous four-year average of 532.94 million pounds.
A line chart of weekly beef production data from the USD’s Agricultural Marketing Service and the National Agricultural Statistics Service by the Livestock Marketing Information Center in Denver shows a marked decline in production in the month between the Memorial Day and Independence Day holidays. Another steep drop in weekly beef production has occurred since the Independence Day holiday approaching the Labor Day holiday.
It’s typical for production to be off again for the Lavor Day holiday. But weekly production already is lower than what this holiday week production was last year and the 2019-2023 average.
That suggests that weekly production the week of the Labor Day holiday will rival the Independence Day low of 409.5 million pounds.
CHOICE BEEF PRODUCTION UP
Total weekly beef production is down in spite of efforts to build every last ounce of beef out of each animal slaughtered. Many feeders feel it’s cheaper to add pounds to cattle already in the feedlot than to try to buy more, even if feeding younger cattle is more cost-effective than adding extra pounds beyond the optimal growth point.
And, doing so increases the overall amount of choice and prime grade beef because as the extra feeding adds fat to the outside of the carcass, it also forces a little extra marbling in the muscle tissue.
That extra marbling may be enough to tip the carcass grade up a notch to choice or prime.
The percent of choice beef produced as a percentage of total slaughter last week was 73.3%, up from 73.2% a week earlier and up from the 2025 low of 70.8% as recently as the second week of June. Last week’s percentage choice production also was up from 72.8% in the same week a year earlier and the previous five-year average of 72.0%.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $236.22 per cwt to $244.13, compared with last week’s range of $236.15 to $246.50 per cwt. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $370.47 per cwt to $383.15, compared with $371.08 to $384.31.
The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was down $1.35 per cwt at $405.85 while select was up $3.40 at $383.16. The choice/select spread narrowed to $22.69 from $27.44 with 83 loads of fabricated product and 19 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $423.75 per cwt, and 50% beef was $175.31.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.30 to $1.40 a bushel over the Sep corn contract, which settled at $3.80, up $0.00 1/2.
No live cattle delivery intentions were posted against the Aug futures delivery month.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Tuesday was $345.58 per cwt, up $0.60. This compares with Wednesday’s Aug contract settlement of $355.77, up $5.22.