Beef production has an important seasonal nature that cattle production systems, feeding and finished weights have not eliminated, said Texas A&M Agricultural Economist David Anderson said in a Livestock Marketing Information Center letter called In The Cattle Markets.
That seasonality contributes to the supply side of seasonal beef prices, Anderson said. And, it looks like some seasonally larger beef production might be taking hold.
LATE SPRING PRODUCTION LOW
Beef production tends to hit its annual seasonal low in the spring, he said. It appears that this seasonal increase is beginning.
From January through April, weekly average beef production was 6.1% less than the same period in 2025, Anderson said. Year-over-year weekly beef production ranged from down 3.2% to down 11.2%.
The decline in beef production moderated during May, with the weekly decline averaging only 3.8%.
Beef production is the product of the number of cattle going to slaughter and their weights, Anderson said. Steer slaughter tends to increase from spring to summer, before declining later in the year.
STEER SLAUGHTER UPTICK
There has been a slight uptick in steer slaughter in recent weeks, he said. Heifer slaughter tends to decline in early summer, but this year it has increased.
On the cow side, dairy cow slaughter is even with a year ago and is right on pace with its usual seasonal decline, Anderson said. Beef cow culling, while remaining less than a year ago, has jumped in recent weeks compared with early in the year.
Fed cattle weights remain historically large, and dressed steer and heifer weights have experienced a small decline.
CHANGING BEEF QUALITY GRADES
Within that, production seasonality is changing beef production by USDA beef quality grades affecting the supply of each grade and price premiums, he said. In May, the percentage of beef grading prime has averaged 16.99%.
The amount grading select has an average of 8.23%, Anderson said. The percent grading prime is double the amount grading select!
Choice beef grading has remained about the same at 71.6%, he said. The boost in prime supplies likely is taking a toll on the prime/choice cutout price spread, which declined from $20.87 in May 2025 to $15.88 in May 2026.
Beef production that is increasing seasonally, combined with changing grading percentages, may result in more beef than a year ago for some grades (prime) than others, Anderson said. Total beef production is not going to exceed a year ago, but there are more cattle on feed than a year ago, continued heavy dressed weights and seasonality in beef production, which have the potential to increase beef production from the tight supplies this spring.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers last week ranged from $256.54 per cwt to $257.34, compared with the previous week’s range of $256.39 to $260.37 per cwt. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $401.57 per cwt to $405.07, compared with $403.23 to $408.57.
The USDA choice cutout Friday was up $0.45 per cwt at $394.37 while select was down $2.67 at $372.08. The choice/select spread widened to $22.29, from $19.17 with 71 loads of fabricated product and nine loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef as $467.78 per cwt, and 50% beef was $187.74.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.23 to $1.43 a bushel over the Jul corn contract, which settled at $4.17 1/2 a bushel, down $0.03 1/2.
No live cattle contracts were tendered for delivery Thursday.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Wednesday was $367.06 per cwt, up $3.04. This compares with Thursday’s Aug contract settlement of $366.60, down $0.82.