The 2024 Livestock Marketing Information Center’s Retail All Fresh Beef Demand Index may be up if fourth-quarter statistics from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the USDA’s Economic Research Service follow the trend of the first three.
The retail pork demand annual index showed more variation through the first three quarters of this year, yielding a less certain final outcome after fourth-quarter data is in.
The LMIC uses the raw data to formulate its annual demand index each quarter, and the indices through September yielded a higher 2024 index in each of the first three. The index uses 2000 as its base rating of 100.
The index also does not break out individual cuts or imported versus domestic beef.
BEEF INDEX RISES
For reference, the annual 2023 beef index stood at 120, down from 123 in 2022 and the peak of 126 in 2021. The index began to rise from its most recent low of 106 in 2019 but jumped to 119 in 2020.
A market analyst said the infusion of federal cash during the COVID shutdowns helped fuel the 2020 and 2021 jumps. Once the cash giveaways were gone, the beef demand index began to settle back.
The first-quarter retail all fresh beef demand index for this year was 129, up from 124 in the 2023 quarter and second only to the peak of 135 in first-quarter 2023.
The second-quarter 2024 index was 122, up from 116 in the same quarter a year earlier and compares with the 2022 second-quarter index of 122 and the peak of 124 in the second-quarter of 2021. The most recent second-quarter index low was in 2017 at 106.
The 2024 third-quarter index was 119, compared with 113 in the 2023 quarter, 115 in the 2022 quarter, 121 in the 2021 quarter and a top of 124 in the 2020 quarter. 2019 had a retail demand index of 103, which followed the most-recent low of 102 in 2018.
PORK DEMAND MIXED
The 2024 retail pork demand index picture is more clouded with first quarter index of 104 down from the matching 2023 index of 113 and the 2022 peak of 124, the second-quarter index of 97 versus 93 a year ago and the 2022 peak of 116, and the third-quarter index of 100 versus 93 a year ago and the 2020 peak of 122.
The 2023 fourth-quarter retail pork demand index came to 98, down from 101 a year earlier and down from the fourth-quarter peak of 130 in 2021.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $186.86 per cwt to $188.01, compared with last week’s range of $185.00 to $190.15 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $290.89 per cwt to $298.91, compared with $290.32 to $295.19.
The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was down $0.31 per cwt at $311.26 while select was off $1.19 at $274.30. The choice/select spread widened to $36.96 from $36.08 with 143 loads of fabricated product and 32 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $324.63 per cwt, and 50% beef was $75.73.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.35 to $1.54 a bushel over the Dec corn contract and unchanged in Kansas at $0.25 over Dec, which settled at $4.15 3/4 a bushel, down $0.04 1/4.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Tuesday was $255.94 per cwt, up $0.23. This compares with Tuesday’s Jan contract settlement of $258.77, up $0.67.