Wholesale values for many beef primal cuts, the major chunks of the carcass from which individual products are cut, should be peaking this week, a quick look at historic price graphs of USDA data compiled by the Livestock Marketing Information Center showed.
For many of the primal cuts, the annual weekly price top occurs this week, and the seasonal trends appear to be well entrenched.
CARCASS CUTOUT RISING
The USDA weekly wholesale price of all primal cuts of choice beef related back to a 600- to 900-pound carcass value last week was $350 per cwt, up $4.35, or 1.26%, from $345.65 a week earlier, up $43.26, or 14.1%, from $306.74 a year ago and, importantly for this conversation, up $37.35, or 11.9%, from the 2019-2023 average of $312.65.
That five-year average is important because it is the annual high of weekly prices for choice carcasses. As such, it represents the peak in the average of averages for a year and, thus, the seasonal trend.
That doesn’t mean an annual high can’t occur in any other week in the year. Last year, for instance, the annual weekly high was set the first week of July at $329.96 per cwt.
And that’s the fly in the ointment of a prediction: last year was an unusual year in terms of beef demand and production. This year also is an unusual year in terms of supply and demand with a smaller cattle herd and interrupted export demand that has nothing to do with supply and demand.
PRIMAL RIBS PEAK LATER
All major primal beef cuts tend to peak at this time of year, except for the primal rib. This cut tends to show its peak in the last week of November when grocers and restaurants are searching to fill in their inventories of rigs for rib roasts and steaks, which are at their peak of demand for holiday meals.
The primal rib has three major price peaks in the year: one in May and June, a second in the last week of August and the third in late November.
Last year, the primal rib set an annual peak at $645.20 per cwt in the second week of December with only a minor secondary peak the first week of July at $498.05.
This year, the cut started the year at $590.17 per cwt the first week of January and put in a second peak at $574.78 the second week of May.
The chuck and round primals each set a 2025 peak so far in late January as consumers sought out roasts rather than steaks. Grinders also were using these cuts to fill hamburger demand.
CTTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $219.93 per cwt to $224.85, compared with last week’s range of $220.35 to $227.53 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $346.70 per cwt to $350.89, compared with $342.45 to $357.95.
The USDA choice cutout Tuesday was up $3.94 per cwt at $358.75 while select was up $0.85 at $344.96. The choice/select spread widened to $13.79 from $10.70 with 76 loads of fabricated product and 25 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $378.82 per cwt, and 50% beef was $124.42.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.15 to $1.25 a bushel over the Jul corn contract, which settled at $4.54 1/2, up $0.07.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Monday was $297.33 per cwt, down $1.53. This compares with Tuesday’s May contract settlement of $296.00, up $0.32.