USDA-reported average weekly choice boxed beef prices continue to decline, and while they remain higher than the same week a year ago or the 2019-2023 average.
Last week’s average negotiated price for choice 600- to 900-pound boxes on a carcass basis was $367.13 per cwt. This was down $9.47, or 2,51%, from $376.60 a week earlier, down $46.47, or 11.2%, from the 2025 high so far of $413.60 five weeks earlier, but up $67.04, or 22.3%, from $300.09 in the same 2024 week and up $114.35, or 45.2%, from the previous five-year average of $252.78.
LITTLE DIRECTION FROM THE GRAPH
However, the graph is giving little direction to prices going forward. Last year’s weekly choice boxed beef price meandered along in a slow rise from January through December, and the 2019-2023 average shows a decided peak the third week of May.
This year, the average weekly price made a February dip followed by an uneven rise to its first peak the last week of June at $394.19 per cwt. A dip to $363.69 four weeks later, followed by a rise to this year’s high.
The uncharacteristic twin peaks after mid-year and the average peak in prices, makes further predictions difficult, an analyst said. Given the growing shortage of cattle, carcass prices could be supported, but the high price appears to be unsustainable going into a time of year when the average carcass value declines with overall consumer buying interest.
CONSUMERS PAYING UP FOR QUALITY
With inflation continuing to rise, it’s somewhat surprising that consumers continue to pay up for quality beef, the analyst said. USDA data compiled by the Livestock Marketing Information Center in Denver shows consistently higher prices for USDA prime grade beef over other quality stamps.
Even branded beef comes in second to prime.
Choice-graded beef prices are a close third to branded beef prices. Select and ungraded beef follow.
The resiliency of prime beef prices may have as much to do with who is able to pay the high price, the analyst said. Rich folks and restaurants can, and will, pay up for what they want. Mere mortals make do with branded, choice and lesser grades.
It’s important to remember that USDA beef grades were meant to distinguish between the eating quality of the beef in question. It has nothing to do with other characteristics that might be important to some consumers who will never eat any prime-graded beef.
But if the price separation between prime and other grades and branded beef could prod some producers to breed toward cattle that will produce a higher percentage of prime-graded carcasses.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $231.60 per cwt to $241.00, compared with last week’s range of $238.09 to $244.00 per cwt. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $365.79 per cwt to $375.71, compared with $373.45 to $379.73.
The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was up $0.19 per cwt at $366.16 while select was down $3.64 at $345.24. The choice/select spread widened to $20.92 from $17.09 with 107 loads of fabricated product and 35 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef as $429.44 per cwt, and 50% beef was $133.97.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.00 to $1.20 a bushel over the Dec corn contract, which settled at $4.22, up $0.02 1/4.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Tuesday was $365.51 per cwt, up $1.27. This compares with Wednesday’s Oct contract settlement of $369.50, up $4.00.