USDA’s reported weekly boxed beef cutout value is holding a little higher than last year and the previous five-year average, even though fed steer and heifer dressed weights also are higher than the two previous benchmarks.
In addition, the weekly percent of beef that was graded choice in the total graded slaughter mix is up counter-seasonally, according to USDA data as reported by the Livestock Marketing Information Center in Denver.
BOXED BEEF PRICE ABOVE YEAR AGO
Last week’s USDA-reported boxed beef cutout value was $314.49 per cwt, up $0.37, or 0.12%, from $314.12 the previous week, up $12.08, or 3.99%, from $302.41 in the same week a year ago and up $74.02, or 30.8%, from the 2018-2022 average of $240.47 per cwt.
The USDA’s weekly boxed beef cutout value has been higher than the five-year average all year. It has been higher than the same week in 2023 for most weeks but broadly following last year’s trend.
If the weekly cutout value continues to use 2023 as the weekly touchpoint, it will fade into the end of the year. The average tends to peak in late May or early June, drop off to early to mid-July and trickle on out through the rest of the year with lower peaks and somewhat steady lows.
DRESSED WEIGHTS UP
Dressed steer and heifer carcass weights are holding at heavier levels than last year or the previous five-year average. At one time, many expected carcass weights to decline, melting into 2023 and the average levels by late this month.
It now appears that won’t happen without a sudden drop, which doesn’t seem likely to many.
USDA-reported weekly dressed heifer weights the first week of August were 834 pounds, down one, or 0.12%, from 835 the previous week but up 23, or 2.84%, from 811 pounds in the same week last year and up 19.4, or 2.38%, from the previous five-year average of 814.6 pounds.
Fed steer dressed weights for the same week were 923 pounds, up one, or 0.11%, from 924 pounds the previous week, up 28, or 3.13%, from 895 pounds in the same 2023 week and up 343, or 3.82%, from the previous five-year average of 889 pounds.
If fed steer dressed weights follow last year’s trend, they will work higher through the end of the year. If they follow the average, upward momentum will stall in late November or early December.
With dressed weights climbing, the amount of choice beef produced as a percent of all beef graded is up. Last week, it was 72.76%, versus 71.54% a month ago and the average of 71.99%.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $186.00 per cwt to $196.79, compared with last week’s range of $184.41 to $196.56 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $293.80 per cwt to $300.38, compared with $294.90 to $303.69.
The USDA choice cutout Tuesday was down $0.47 per cwt at $315.08 while select was down $0.97 at $301.04. The choice/select spread widened to $14.04 from $13.54 with 115 loads of fabricated product and 23 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The weighted average USDA listed wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $378.19 per cwt, and 50% beef was $160.59.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.50 to $1.60 a bushel over the Sep corn contract, which settled at $3.75 a bushel, down $0.03.
No live cattle contracts were tendered for delivery Tuesday.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Monday was $243.85 per cwt, down $0.14. This compares with Tuesday’s Aug contract settlement of $238.20, down $4.17.