Canada Cattle On Feed Turn Up

Total numbers of cattle on feed in Alberta and Saskatchewan, Canada turned upward slightly in October, said CanFax, a private market analysis firm based in Calgary, Alberta.

The USDA is scheduled to release its own monthly US Cattle on Feed report showing October feedlot population activity at 3:00 pm ET.  It is expected to show significant increases in the numbers of cattle on feed.

The total number of cattle on feed in the two provinces amounted to 634,951 head, up 27,775, or 4.57%, from the annual low of 607,176 in September.  However, it was 66,530 head, or 9.48%, below the 2011-2015 average of 701,481.

The total number on feed in Canada usually bottoms in September and then shoots higher through the end of the year.

This year, the number of cattle on feed ran below last year and the 2011-2015 average until May when it almost equaled them as they ran close to each other.  There was a period from June through August where this year’s feedlot populations ran above last year and the previous five-year average.

In September, the 2017 Canadian cattle on feed numbers fell below the 2011-2015 average but remained above last year.  This was followed by October’s turn higher where it remained between last year and the average.

If total cattle on feed numbers follow the seasonal trends, they should climb sharply in November and December.  November’s total could be around 800,000 head, a rounded average between the 2011-2015 average and last year.  December’s total should fall somewhere between 871,000 and 987,000.




Canadian feedlot placements in September continued to rise from the annual low in July, falling between last year and the 2011-2015 average.

Specifically, placements amounted to 202,084 head in September, up 76,300, or 60.7%, from 125,784 in August.  They also were up 26,499, or 15.1%, from 175,585 in September of 2016 but 38,108, or 15.9%, below the previous five-year average of 240,192.

If the October placements continue to follow the pattern, they should peak in October at about 298,500 head, a rounded average between last year and the 2011-2015 average.

After that, they should decline in November to about 269,500 head and then drop dramatically in December to about 92,500.




US cattle on feed numbers as of Nov. 1 were expected to rise about 6% from last year as October placements jump about 8% and marketings rise about 5%, according to pre-release surveys.

A rise in placements would follow the average trend, but a rise in marketings during the month seems less certain in that the average shows only a small gain.