The number of cattle populating Canada’s feedlots as of Dec. 1 was below a year ago for only the second time this year as November placements put in their seventh month of the year with lower numbers than in 2019.
The data came from CanFax, a private market statistics and market advisory group. CanFax gathers the numbers from member feedlots in Alberta and Saskatchewan and publishes them to its members. The Livestock Marketing Information Center in Denver compiles some of the data and publishes monthly totals for the total on feed and total placements. Any other data is not released publicly.
ON-FEED NUMBERS BELOW 2019
The Dec. 1 on-feed number came to 1.055 million head, up 115,012, or 12.2%, from 940,248 in November but down 79,435, or 7.00%, from Dec. 1, 2019’s, total of 1.135 million. However, this year’s Dec. 1 total was 93,932, or 9.77%, more than the 2014-2018 average of 961,328 head.
Until the Nov. 1 total, monthly numbers of cattle on feed in Canada had remained above the same month a year earlier. Both years were above the 2014-2018 five-year average.
Seasonal trends, however, remained in place. With drastic climatic changes with each season in Canada, seasonal moves are very well entrenched.
That means, January’s number of cattle on feed can be counted on to be less than December’s.
There is some wiggle room in monthly numbers from January through April where monthly totals run relatively flat, but beginning with the May 1 totals, the numbers munching from the feed bunks declines into September’s annual low.
But the trend for the last two years has been to have more cattle on feed than the year before. There is little to indicate whether feedlot populations next year will be up from this year again since monthly feedlot placements have run close to last year and the average for most of the year.
NOVEMBER PLACEMENTS DOWN FROM LAST YEAR
It is possible that late-winter and early spring Canadian feedlot marketings of fed cattle could be lower than last year since placements in October and November were significantly fewer than a year earlier.
November feedlot placements totaled 263,643 head, down 86,635, or 24.7%, from 350,278 in October and down 84,187, or 24.2%, from 347,830 in 2019 but up 3,109, or 1.19%, from the previous five-year average of 260,534.
Since monthly placements this year tended to follow last year and the 2014-2018 average well until late in the year, the only explanation for having more cattle in the feedlots than last year or the average is that they were on feed longer for whatever reason.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
Fed cattle trading was reported in the Plains last week at $106 to $108 per cwt on a live basis, down $4 from the previous week. Dressed-basis trading was seen at $168 to $170 per cwt, down $4.
The USDA choice cutout Monday was down $4.19 per cwt at $209.69, while select was off $3.41 at $192.30. The choice/select spread narrowed to $17.39 from $18.17 with 148 loads of fabricated product and 29 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA reported Monday that basis bids for corn from livestock feeding operations in the Southern Plains were steady to up $0.01 at $1.05 to $1.10 a bushel over the Mar CBOT futures contract, which settled at $4.24 a bushel, up $0.00 1/2.
No delivery intentions for live cattle futures were posted Monday.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Friday was $136.57 per cwt, down $0.09. This compares with Monday’s Jan contract settlement of $140.02 per cwt, up $0.30.