Canada’s cattle on feed Feb. 1 declined from January, following a normal trend, but the total number remains less than a year earlier, although holding at more than the 2017-2021 average.
Canada’s cattle-on-feed numbers come from CanFax, a private market advisory service and only include feedlots in Alberta and Saskatchewan. They are collected and shared with their members, as the total number on feed and the previous month’s placements also are shared with Denver’s Livestock Marketing Information Center, which graphs and publishes the data on its website.
ON-FEED NUMBER MIXED
The report said there were 1.050 million head on feed Feb. 1, down 38,127, or 3.50%, from 1.088 million on Jan. 1, down 68,512, or 6.13%, from 1.118 million a year earlier but up 92,679, or 9.68%, from the previous five-year average of 957,007.
The 2017-2021 on-feed graph line says the total on feed should rise slightly to a seasonal top on April 1. At that point, the number slides into a steeper decline to the annual low on Sep. 1.
Seasonalities can be relied on much more in Canada than in the contiguous 48 of the US. Weather conditions in the four seasons are much more marked because of Canada’s more northern latitude. As a result, changes often are minor and variations corrected shortly.
Last year, the on-feed number failed to rise into March 1 but corrected into April 1 and followed the seasonal trend for the rest of the year, although always at a larger number.
Because of the relatively stable seasonal trends, it’s possible the total on feed in Canada may remain between last year and the five-year average, an analyst said.
PLACEMENTS BETWEEN 2022 AND AVERAGE
Since the on-feed number is holding between last year and the previous five-year average, it probably is not surprising that January placements of feeder cattle on feed were between the previous totals as well.
The total number of young cattle placed on feed in Canada last month was 124,301 head, up 34,195, or 37.9%, from December’s 90,106 but down 6,613, or 5.05%, from the January 2022 total of 130,914 and 21,712, or 21.2%, more than the 2017-2021 average of 102,589.
Feedlot placements should rise to a March peak and then trail off to the annual low in July, if they follow the five-year trendline.
After bottoming in July, placements generally begin a steep rise into October’s annual peak as grass gives out for the summer. At the height of pastures going dormant for the winter, monthly placements are at their highest.
After the October peak, placements fall away rapidly to a secondary annual low in December.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $164.55 to $164.82 per cwt, compared with last week’s range of $160.59 to $162.08. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $258.50 to $258.82 per cwt, versus $251.10 to $258.71.
The USDA choice cutout Monday was up $1.06 per cwt at $288.34 while select was up $2.17 at $279.25. The choice/select spread narrowed to $9.09 from $10.20 with 56 loads of fabricated product and 12 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.50 to $1.60 a bushel over the Mar corn contract, which settled at %6.42 3/4, down $0.07 1/4. Bids in Kansas were $0.75 over May, which settled at $6.43 ½ a bushel, down $0.05 3/4.
No cattle contracts were tendered for delivery on Monday.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Friday was $182.24 per cwt, down $0.53. This compares with Monday’s Mar contract settlement of $189.17 per cwt, up $0.10.