Canada Cattle On Feed Down Seasonally

Canada’s cattle on feed Feb. 1 declined seasonally and were between Feb. 1, 2023, and the 2018-2022 average at 1.034 million head, according to data from CanFax, a private market advisory group.

CanFax surveys its members in Alberta and Saskatchewan to ascertain the total, among other data points.  It shares the total on feed and monthly placements with the Livestock Marketing Information Center in Denver, which compiles it and publishes it on its website.

 

ON-FEED NUMBERS DECLINE

 

Feb. 1 on-feed numbers in Canada of 1.034 million head were down from the Jan. 1 total of 1.093 million by 59,000 head, or 5.40%.  The total also was down 16,000, or 1.52%, from the Feb. 1, 2023, total of 1.050 million but up 23,000, or 2.27%, from the previous five-year average of 1.011 million.

In a counter-seasonal move, the US had 11.797 million head on feed as of Feb. 1, down 133,000, or 1.11%, from 11.930 million a month earlier, up 43,000. Or 0.37%, from 11.754 million a year earlier but down 134,000, or 1.12%, from the 2018-2022 average of 11.931 million.

Canada’s on-feed numbers usually decline in January, so the monthly dip probably is no surprise to traders, a market analyst said.  The numbers also held closely to previous totals.

The average trend for February is for Canada’s total to remain nearly steady, followed by a slight rise in March.  Last year, on-feed totals declined each month from Jan. 1 through to the annual low on Sep. 1.

 

PLACEMENTS DOWN

 

Canada’s January feedlot placements, at 106,663 head, were up 28,842, or 37.1%, from 77,821 in December but down 17,638, or 14.2%, from 124,301 in January 2023 and down 6,089, or 5.40%, from the 2018-2022 average of 112,752.

The US’s January feedlot placements totaled 1.792 million head, up 94,000, or 5.54%, from December’s 1.698 million but down 144,000, or 7.44%, from January 2023’s 1.936 million and down 212,000, or 10.6%, from the previous five-year average of 2.004 million.

Canada’s monthly feedlot placements typically climb through March and then decline to the annual low in July.  After July, forage choices decline seasonally, leading to the annual monthly placement high in October.

Last year, monthly placements generally followed the trend except for a bump in May.  Fourth-quarter monthly placements tended to be less than the 2018-2022 average, contrasting third-quarter placements, which were higher than the average.

The surprise in monthly Canadian placements would be if a month or two were sharply above or below the average, or if a month or two were counter-seasonal in a big way, the analyst said.  Seasons are more defined in Canada than in the contiguous 48.

 

CATTLE, BEEF RECAP

 

The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $183.71 per cwt to $186.24, compared with last week’s range of $182.64 to $185.54 per cwt.  FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $287.92 per cwt to $290.93, compared with $283.61 to $290.96.

The USDA choice cutout Tuesday was down $1.51 per cwt at $304.79 while select was down $0.30 at $294.87.  The choice/select spread narrowed to $9.92 from $11.13 with 109 loads of fabricated product and 28 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.

The daily weighted average USDA listed wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $313.73 per cwt, and 50% beef was $103.92.

The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.40 to $1.50 a bushel over the May corn contract, which settled at $4.26 1/4 a bushel, down $0.03 3/4.

The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Friday was $246.38 per cwt, down $0.62.  This compares with Monday’s Mar contract settlement of $251.55, down $1.42.