Canadian feedlots had an estimated 1.093 million head on feed as of Jan. 1, slightly more than at the same time in 2023 and more than the 2018-2022 average, according to CanFax, a private market advisory group.
CanFax gathers its information from member feedlots in Alberta and Saskatchewan and passes on the data for totals on feed and monthly placements to the Livestock Marketing Information Center in Denver. The LMIC then assembles the data and publishes it in graph form on its website.
TOTALS NEAR 2023
The total number of cattle populating Canadian feedlots on Jan. 1 was 1.093 million head, up 5,000, or 0.46%, from 1.088 million a year earlier and up 56,000, or 5.40%, from the 2018-2022 average of 1.037 million. However, this was down 67,000, or 5.78%, from the Dec. 1, 2023, total of 1.160 million.
Canada’s on-feed numbers typically drop from Dec. 1 to Jan. 1 as feed yards clean up their inventories. If feedlot numbers continue to follow the seasonal trend, they will decline through January into Feb. 1, hold nearly steady, or even rise a little into April 1 and then begin a slide into the Sep. 1 annual low.
It’s interesting that this year’s Jan. 1 totals nearly matched last year’s. Last year’s monthly totals began the year at a higher level than the previous five-year average but started out above the average line, dipped below it in May, crossed back above in August and remained above average for the rest of the year.
Canada’s placement rates and on-feed numbers have a strong seasonality to them. Summer and winter there are so different that there isn’t much that can be done to counter the weather. The only things that have been observed causing major changes in either is when drought or wildfires devastate pastures in the summer or when there is a strong desire to increase or decrease cattle and beef production.
PLACEMENTS FINISH 2023 WEAK
Canada’s feedlot placements finished 2023 weak, although maintaining the seasonal month-to-month trend. Total placements during December were 77,821 head, down 159,249, or 67.2%, from November’s 237,070, down 12,285, or 13.6%, from 2023’s 90,106 and down 10,610, or 12.0%, from the previous five-year average of 88,431 head.
Seasonally, January’s feedlot placements will be close to, or slightly more than those in December. Last year, placements in January were more than the 2017-2021 average but a little less than those in 2022. Placements should rise in February from January and show a seasonal peak in March.
From there, they may decline to the July low and rise again sharply to the October high. After that, they fall off rapidly to the December low.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $174.04 per cwt to $175.47, compared with last week’s range of $172.05 to $175.34 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $270.35 per cwt to $273.39, compared with $270.93 to $277.08.
The USDA choice cutout Tuesday was up $2.99 per cwt at $301.66 while select was up $1.80 at $288.38. The choice/select spread widened to $13.28 from $12.09 with 78 loads of fabricated product and 22 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.33 to $1.44 a bushel over the Mar corn contract, which settled at $4.46 1/2 a bushel, up $0.00 3/4.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Monday was $228.47 per cwt, down $0.04. This compares with Tuesday’s Jan contract settlement of $231.00, up $1.17.