Canada’s population of cattle on feed as of Sep. 1 declined from Aug. 1 but not as much as normal, according to data from CanFax, a private market advisory group.
CanFax collects the data from its members in Alberta and Saskatchewan and allows the Livestock Marketing Information Center in Denver to publish the total on feed and the total placements each month. The group gives no market commentary to explain the numbers.
But it’s telling that placements also moved up in August, continuing a pattern begun in June.
ON-FEED NUMBERS UP
The number of cattle populating Canadian feedlots on Sep. 1 came to 917,906 head, down 3,076, or 0.33%, from 920,982 a month earlier. However, this was up 145,017, or 18.8%, from 772,889 a month earlier and up 270,001, or 41.7%, from the 2015-2019 average of 647,905.
Canada’s on-feed numbers have shown a less-than-trend monthly decline since May, but a graph of the monthly totals didn’t diverge widely from last year or the previous five-year average until this latest report.
While the month-to-month decline in on-feed numbers from August to September was 0.33%, last year’s monthly decline was 58,965, or 7.09%, going to 772,889 from 831,854. The 2015-2019 average decline for the month was 62,517, or 8.80%, going to 647,905 head from 710,422.
If the cattle-on-feed numbers follow a normal path from the Sep. 1 census, they will rise into Oct. 1 and rise even more steeply into Dec. 1, ending somewhere around a million head.
CANADA FEEDLOT PLACEMENTS UP
The number of calves entering Canada’s feedlots in August came to 175,411 head, up 35,102, or 25.0%, from 140,309 in July and up 67,214, or 62.1%, from 108,197 a year ago. Placements also were up 62,708, or 55.6%, from the 2015-2019 average of 112,703 head.
If feedlot placements follow the trend, they will rise to a peak in October and then drop rapidly into December. There will be little change in January with an early year rise through March.
This year’s feedlot placements may be linked to widespread North American drought conditions that resulted in extensive wildfires in the western US and in western Canada, a market analyst said.
But while placements usually rise into an October high around 350,000 head, the annual high may fall short of this number because many of the calves may already be in the feedlots just because there was nowhere else to put them, the analyst said. Pastures may have given out earlier than normal, and there is no hope for recovery since the seasonal trends in pasture conditions is so set by the weather.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $125.10 to $125.56 per cwt, compared with last week’s range of $122.43 to $127.40. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $195.05 to $196.41 per cwt, versus $192.44 to $203.38.
The USDA choice cutout Monday was up $1.19 per cwt at $315.66, while select was up $1.00 at $280.75. The choice/select spread widened to $34.91 from $34.72 with 61 loads of fabricated product and 23 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA reported Monday that basis bids for corn from livestock feeding operations in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.85 to $2.05 a bushel over the Dec futures and for southwest Kansas were unchanged at $0.40 over Dec, which settled at $5.21 3/4 a bushel, down $0.05 1/2.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Friday was $153.75 per cwt down $0.85. This compares with Monday’s Sep contract settlement of $155.00 per cwt, up $0.12.