The Canadian cattle herd has entered the consolidation phase, according to a Global Agricultural Information Network report from the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service attaché in Ottawa.
HEIFER RETENTION RISING
In a semi-annual report, the attaché said heifer retention practices in 2025 and a slight increase to the breeding herd to begin 2026 will support a larger 2026 calf crop. Consequently, slaughter and beef production were forecast to grow in 2026.
Heifer retention and reduced cow culls were expected to continue in 2026 as producers work toward a herd rebuild, the attaché said. Increased beef production and market access opportunities were expected to have Canadian beef exports grow in 2026.
A larger breeding herd was expected to yield a year-over-year calf crop increase for 2026, the report said. Improved pasture conditions in several regions in 2025 supported reduced cow slaughter and increased heifer retention.
The Canadian herd was seen as primed to begin a slow rebuild, the GAIN report said.
Live cattle imports in 2025 were record high, the USDA report said. While 2026 live imports were forecast to decline, they still were expected to remain robust.
Western Canada continued to have available feedlot pen space, the attaché said.
A larger 2026 calf crop was expected to result in more domestic availability of feeder cattle, the report said. Fed exports were forecast to remain strong in 2026 given tight US supplies.
Beef production was expected to grow in 2026 with heavier carcass weights and slightly higher slaughter numbers, the attaché said. The heavier weights supported beef production amid tighter cattle supplies.
Beef imports were forecast to grow again in 2026, the attaché said. High domestic and US beef prices were forecast to support growth in imports from lower-cost-of-production regions.
Beef exports were forecast to grow in 2026, the report said. Canadian beef regained access to the Chinese market and achieved additional market access in Indonesia.
SWINE HERD SEEN STEADY
The Canadian swine herd was forecast to remain relatively stable in 2026, the attaché said. Slaughter was forecast to show slight growth with a slightly larger pig crop and more processing capacity utilization.
Canada’s pork exports could remain strong on sustained global demand, the attaché said. Producers will be watching closely for any effects to live exports from the full implementation of “Product of USA,” the report said.
Live hog exports were forecast to be up 2% with market hog exports forecast lower while feeder pig exports will be supported by strong US pricing.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $246.63 per cwt to $250.77, compared with last week’s range of $245.55 to $252.00 per cwt. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $386.67 per cwt to $389.43, compared with $386.05 to $397.06.
The USDA choice cutout Thursday was up $1.47 per cwt at $389.52 while select was up $1.92 at $388.17. The choice/select spread narrowed to $1.35 from $1.80 with 87 loads of fabricated product and 31 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef as $458.12 per cwt, and 50% beef was $194.50.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.08 to $1.20 a bushel over the May corn contract, which settled at $4.64 3/4 a bushel, down $0.01 3/4.
No live cattle contracts were tendered for delivery Thursday.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Wednesday was $372.47 per cwt, up $2.67. This compares with Thursday’s Apr contract settlement of $373.75, up $1.47, and May’s $372.65, up $1.15.