Canadian Cattle On Feed Follow Trend At Higher Level

The number of cattle in Canada’s feedlots on Sep. 1 totaled 811,771 head down from August but following the 2016-2020 average trend closely but at a higher level, according to CanFax, a private market advisory group in Canada.

CanFax collects the data from feedlots in Alberta and Saskatchewan and sends the total results to its members.  However, the group allows the Livestock Marketing Information Center in Denver to publish the total on-feed numbers each month and the monthly placement numbers.

 

ON-FEED NUMBERS UP FROM TREND

 

At 811,771 head, the Sep. 1 Canadian on-feed total was down from Aug. 1’s 891,159 head by 79,388, or 8.91%.  It also was down 106,135, or 11.6%, from last year’s 917,906 head but up 135,973, or 20.1%, from the trend of 675,798 head.

A market analyst said the important thing to watch is the comparison with the five-year average, which for 2022 leaves out 2021.  Last year, Canada’s feedlot populations from July onward were swollen with younger cattle that normally would have spent more time on pasture before entering the feedlot.

Those younger cattle were there because severe drought and wildfires ate up pasturelands, forcing ranchers to move them to feedlots earlier than planned, the analyst said.

But not all of last year’s increase was because of unavailable pasture, the analyst said.  Comparisons of on-feed numbers suggest that placements were rising, too.  If they weren’t, the 2022 on-feed numbers would have returned closer to the 2016-2020 average.

There also could have been some herd reduction activities that put more heifers on feed than would be expected under a balanced-herd situation, swelling placements for a time, the analyst said.

 

PLACEMENTS BELOW AVERAGE

 

Monthly placements into Canadian feedlots dipped below the 2016-2020 average in August, coming in at 89,813 head, up 28,632, or 46.8%, from July’s 61,181 but 85,598, or 48.8%, less than the August 2021 rate of 175,411 head and 24,917, or 21.7%, less than the previous five-year average of 114,730 head.

Last year’s summer placements appeared to be an anomaly.  Summer’s monthly placements were more than the average, as was the October placement rate.  October is the peak month for placements in Canada where pronounced seasons make pasturing untenable during the winter.  Yearlings will be sent to the feedlots as soon as the pasture wears out.

July generally is the month with the fewest number of placements.  However, last year, the bottom came in May at 108,447 head.

Going forward, Canadian feedlot placements will rise rapidly into the October peak and then fall rapidly into December.  There should be a rise in placements into a March seasonal peak before falling off into July.

 

CATTLE, BEEF RECAP

 

The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers last week ranged from $141.00 to $145.00 per cwt, compared with the previous week’s range of $141.00 to $150.00 FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $221.34 to $227.23 per cwt, versus $223.30 to $228.00.

The USDA choice cutout Monday was up $0.05 per cwt at $252.45 while select was down $0.76 at $225.89.  The choice/select spread widened to $26.56 from $25.75 with 118 loads of fabricated product and 20 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.

The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged to up $0.05 at $2.65 to $2.80 a bushel over the Dec futures and for southwest Kansas were steady at $1.10 over Dec, which settled at $6.78 1/4, up $0.01.

The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Friday was $17.92 per cwt up $1.10.  This compares with Friday’s Sep contract settlement of $179.95, up $0.75.