Canadian cattle on feed numbers continued to decline seasonally in July, falling between last year and the 2017-2021 average, according to data from CanFax, a private market advisory service.
Further declines are possible into Sep. 1.
CanFax surveys its feedlot members monthly and releases the on-feed and placement numbers for Alberta and Saskatchewan to the Livestock Marketing Information Center in Denver where they are compiled, graphed and released on the LMIC website. Any other data is reserved for CanFax members.
ON-FEED NUMBERS DOWN
The number of cattle in Canadian feedlots as of July 1 totaled 910,182 head, down 27,618, or 2.94%, from June 1’s 937,800, down 75,810, or 7.69%, from last year’s 985,992 but up 27,882, or 3.16%, from the previous five-year average of 882,300.
On-feed numbers in Canada have declined each month so far, which follows a general seasonal trend. Although, the numbers missed a minor hump that usually occurs in March and April. Last year, there was a minor increase in on-feed numbers on April 1.
There is a strong seasonal trend toward a summer decline in feedlot numbers in Canada. Weather plays a major force in placements, placement weights and in how well cattle do on feed. The decline in feedlot numbers should end by the Sep. 1 census. After that, they should climb rapidly as pasture availability declines.
PLACEMENTS ALSO DOWN
Canada’s June feedlot placements also declined, a seasonal move that should end in July, the CanFax data showed. However, this year’s number was larger than either last year or the previous five-year average.
June placements totaled 101,777 head, down 15,284, or 13.1%, from May’s 117,061 head, but up 13,871, or 15.8%, from last year’s 87,906 and down 14,690, or 16.9%, from the 2017-2021 average of 87,087.
Seasonally, Canadian feedlot placements trend lower for another month where they set an annual bottom before turning sharply higher as pastures begin giving out. This year, large wildfires could send cattle to the feedlots earlier than planned.
No sign of that has shown up in the data yet unless it was May’s uncharacteristic upturn. Before then, placements had been below last year and the average from February through April.
Wildfire influence could keep monthly feedlot placements above last year and the five-year average and even turn higher in July at a higher level.
The US Cattle on Feed report is scheduled for release Friday afternoon, and traders and analysts surveyed by Urner Barry expect placements to run nearly 2% less than a year earlier. June marketings also were forecast lower by almost 5%.
US placements were seen lower as drought continues to pressure herd sizes and available young cattle to place on feed.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $178.00 per cwt to $188.83, compared with last week’s range of $178.00 to $186.59 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $280.35 per cwt to $288.43, compared with $280.56 to $287.07.
The USDA choice cutout Thursday was down $1.03 per cwt at $302.56 while select was down $1.25 at $274.71. The choice/select spread widened to $27.85 from $27.63 with 133 loads of fabricated product and 19 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.90 to $2.05 a bushel over the Sep corn contract, which settled at $5.37 1/4 a bushel, down $0.08 1/4.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Wednesday was $237.83 per cwt, down $0.65. This compares with Thursday’s Aug contract settlement of $245.10 per cwt, down $1.70.