The strong cattle and beef price trend coming into 2025 is expected to continue as cattle inventories and beef supplies tighten further in the coming months, said Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension marketing specialist, in a newsletter.
However, while cattle and beef markets are very strong internally, external shocks from political uncertainty along with US and global macroeconomic jitters may cause short-term shocks and short-lived market setbacks, Peel said. Volatility is likely to accompany a bullish market.
MARKETS ROCKET OUT OF THE GATE
Cattle and beef markets rocketed out of the gate coming into 2025, he said. With no post-holiday wavering, all cattle and beef markets moved higher in the first half of January, setting record price highs, continuing the trend of the last three years.
In Oklahoma auctions in the week ended Jan. 17, the price of 500-pound steers (M/L, No. 1) was $361.88 per cwt, up 18.1% year over year and up 111.1% from the same week four years ago, Peel said. For 800-pound steers, the price was $269.07 per cwt, up 21.0% year over year and up 105.1% in the last four years.
CALF CROP PEAKS IN 2018
The US calf crop peaked cyclically in 2018 at 36.3 million head and decreased for the last six years to 33.5 million head in 2024, Peel said.
The five-market fed steer live price was $203.56 per cwt for the week ended Jan. 17, up 17.3% from one year ago and up 85.9% from January 2021, he said. Daily five-market fed steer prices hit $200 per cwt for the first time on Jan. 7 and reached as high as $205.37 per cwt on Jan. 15. Higher fed prices are expected.
The Oklahoma price of average-dressing boning cull cows was $124.31 per cwt last week, up 21.1% from one year ago and up 149.5% from the same week in 2021, Peel said. Cull cow prices last week ranged from $136.82 per cwt for high-dressing breaker cows to $110.09 per cwt for low-dressing lean cows.
BOXED BEEF UP
The weekly choice boxed beef price for mid-January was $333.51 per cwt, up 17.7% year over year and up 58.2% over 2021, he said. The rib primal price hit $508.06 per cwt, up 2.4% year over year and up 50.2% from the same week in 2021.
The loin primal price was $393.99 per cwt, up 4.9% over last year and up 49.7% from 2021, peel said. End cuts were stronger relative to the middle meats, with the chuck. The round primal price was $302.66 per cwt, up 36.1% from one year ago and up 65.9% from 2021.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $204.48 per cwt to $210.94, compared with last week’s range of $201.74 to $211.62 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $320.86 per cwt to $330.40, compared with $316.06 to $327.24.
The USDA choice cutout Thursday was down $1.36 per cwt at $323.98 while select was up $0.44 at $314.77. The choice/select spread narrowed to $9.21 from $11.01 with 92 loads of fabricated product and 21 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $372.08 per cwt, and 50% beef was $114.22.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.21 to $1.31 a bushel over the Mar corn contract, which settled at $4.95 1/4, up $0.02.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Wednesday was $277.64 per cwt, down $1.39. This compares with Thursday’s Mar contract settlement of $265.30, down $5.32.