The US cattle herd on Jan. 1 declined by 198,000 head, or 0.21%, to 93.595 million from a revised 93.793 million a year earlier, the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service said in its semi-annual Cattle (Inventory) report on Friday.
That amount of decline is almost insignificant in the total scope of things, even though the herd was larger than some analysts expected, a market analyst said.
BEEF CALF POTENTIAL RISES
Along with last year’s slight increase in cow and heifer slaughter comes a realization that this year’s, and next year’s beef calf crops could be larger, the analyst said. The number of heifers earmarked for beef cow replacement was up slightly from a year ago, while dairy heifer replacements declined.
NASS lumps heifers weighing less than 500 pounds into a category called “calves under 500 pounds,” which was down, so it’s difficult to tell much about what the complexion of the herd will look like in the intermediate future, the analyst said.
All cows and heifers that calved in 2020, at 40.598 million head, were 83,000, or 0.20%, fewer than the 40.681 million in 2019. Beef cows at 31.158 million head, were down 181,000, or 0.58%, from 31.339 million a year ago, while milk cows, at 9.440 million head, were up 97,000, or 1.04%, from 9.343 million the previous year.
The number of other heifers weighing 500 pounds or more came to 9.594 million head, up 52,000, or 0.55%, from 9.532 million a year earlier.
However, the number of beef heifers kept for replacement in the breeding herd came to 5.812 million head, up 3,000, or 0.05%, from 5.809 million a year ago. Of these, 3.547 million were expected to calve this year, up 47,000, or 1.34%, from 3.500 million a year ago.
As on Jan. 1, there were 4.605 million dairy heifers weighing more than 500 pounds destined to be replacements for culled cows, down 79,000, or 1.69%, from 4.684 million a year ago. Of these, 2.916 million were expected to calve this year, down 55,000, or 1.85%, from 2.971 million a year ago.
CALF CROP DECLINES
The number of calves born last year came to 35.136 million head down 456,000, or 1.28%, from 35.592 million in 2019.
Calves born during the first half of 2020 were estimated at 25.750 million head, down 250,000, or 0.96%, from 26.000 million the first half of 2019 and 73.3% of the total. Calves born in the second half of 2020 were estimated at 9.386 million head, 26,7% of the total 2020 calf crop.
The total number of calves grazing small grain pasture in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas came to 1.730 million head up 7.45% from 1.610 million.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
Fed cattle trading was reported last week at $110 to mostly $113 per cwt, up $1 to $2 from the previous week. Dressed-basis trading was seen at $177 to $178 per cwt, up $5.
The USDA choice cutout Friday was up $1.96 per cwt at $233.95, while select was up $1.82 at $222.70. The choice/select spread widened to $11.25 from $11.11 with 54 loads of fabricated product and 20 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA reported Thursday that basis bids for corn from livestock feeding operations in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.00 to $1.25 a bushel over the Mar CBOT futures contract, which settled at $5.47 a bushel, up $0.12 1/2.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Thursday was $136.02 per cwt, up $0.68. This compares with Friday’s Mar contract settlement of $137.72 per cwt, down $2.07.