The US inventory of all cattle and calves as of Jan. 1 was up from a year earlier, but it looks as though the herd-building process is about to end.
Data from the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service’s semi-annual Cattle (Inventory) report, which was delayed a month by the partial government shutdown, showed a decline in beef and dairy replacement heifers and an increase in other (presumably feedlot) heifers.
However, the number of beef cows was up, suggesting a flat to larger calf crop this year.
TOTAL HERD UP SLIGHTLY
The US inventory of all cattle and calves as of Jan. 1 was up slightly to 94.760 million head from 94.298 million a year earlier, the NASS said Thursday.
The inventory gain was about 462,000 head, or 0.49%, and was in line with most trader estimates prior to the report.
All cows and heifers that have calved, at 41.119 million head, were 221,000 head, or 0.54% above the 40.898 million head on Jan. 1, 2018. Beef cows that have calved, at 31.766 million head, were up 300,000, or 0.95% from 31.466 million a year ago, and dairy cows, at 9.353 million, were down 79,000, or 0.84% from 9.432 million in 2018.
REPLACEMENT HEIFERS DOWN
All heifers 500 pounds and above as of Jan. 1 totaled 20.230 million head, 12,000, or 0.06%, more than the 20.218 million a year earlier.
Beef replacement heifers, at 5.925 million head, were down 183,000, or 3.00% from 6.108 million a year ago.
Milk replacement heifers, at 4.702 million head, were down 66,000, or 1.38% from 4.768 million in 2018, and other heifers, at 9.604 million head, were up 263,000, or 2.82% from 9.341 million a year earlier.
The 2018 US calf crop was estimated at 36.403 million head, up 645,000, or 1.80% from the 2017 calf crop of 35.758 million.
Calves born during the first half of 2018 were estimated at 26.600 million head, up 650,000, or 2.50% from 25.950 million born during the first half of 2017. This was 73.1% of the total 2018 calf crop.
Calves born during the second half of 2018 were estimated at 9.803 million, down 5,000, or 0.05%, from 9.808 million in the 2017 period and 27.4% of the total 2018 calf crop.
STEER, CALF NUMBERS UP
It seems the number of feeder cattle outside of feedlots was up from a year earlier, something that would be expected given the rise in the total herd. A market analyst said supplies could remain adequate through at least the first half of the year.
Steers weighing 500 pounds or more as of Jan 1 totaled 16.633 million head, up 105,000, or 0.64%, from 16.528 million on Jan. 1, 2018.
Calves weighing less than 500 pounds on Jan. 1 came to 14.515 million head, up 369,000, or 2.61% from 14.146 million a year earlier.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
Cash cattle trade took place late last week at mostly $126 to $126.50 per cwt on a live basis, up $0.50 to $1 from the previous week, and at mostly $202, up $2 to $4.
The USDA choice cutout Thursday was up $0.49 per cwt at $219.95, while select was up $2.48 at $215.27. The choice/select spread narrowed to $4.68 from $6.67 with 88 loads of fabricated product sold into the spot market.
There were two steer redelivery tenders at one Thursday.
The CME Feeder Cattle index for the seven days ended Wednesday, was $139.94 per cwt, down $0.52. This compares with Thursday’s Mar contract settlement of $142.87, down $1.00.