Friday’s annual USDA Cattle (Inventory) report showed continued shrinking of the US cattle herd on Jan. 1 versus a year earlier but hinted at the stirrings of herd rebuilding.
The data for herd rebuilding was not conclusive since the changes were small and easily redirected, a market analyst said. The number of beef heifers being held for breeding was less than 1% larger than those being held back in the 2025 count.
TOTAL HERD COUNT DOWN
The number of cattle in the US beef and dairy herds combined was 86.155 million head, down 317,000, or 0.37%, from 86.472 million a year earlier. It’s also down 8.51 million, or 8.99%, from the latest high in the US herd of 94.665 million head, which was on Jan. 1 2019.
Of those, 37.176 million head were cows or heifers that have calved by Jan. 1. This was down 97,000, or 0.26%, from 37.273 million a year earlier.
And, of those, 27.607 million were beef cows, down 285,000, or 1.02%, from 27.892 million a year earlier. Another 9.568 million were dairy breeds, up 187,000, or 1.99%, from 9.381 million a year earlier.
The Livestock Marketing Information Center drew two outlooks from this year’s Jan. 1 total cow inventory One continued to decline for two more years before turning upward. The other declined for 2027 but turned upward in 2028.
THE HEIFERS
The number of heifers weighing 500 pounds or more on Jan. 1 totaled 18.017 million head, down 113,000, or 0.62%, from 18.130 million in the 2025 count. But the decline came in the census of dairy heifers.
The number of heifers intended for milk cow replacement came to 3.905 million head, down 10,000, or 0.26%, from 3.915 million a year ago.
And, the number of beef breed heifers being aimed at herd replacements was 4.714 million head, up 41,000, or 0.88%, from 4.673 million a year ago.
Up only 41,000 head, the analyst said. Considering that 1.554 million head of steers and heifers were placed on feed in December alone, this isn’t much, so if things like drought conditions force the issue, any heifers that aren’t bred can be sold to the feedlots for eventual slaughter.
On the beef-breed heifers meant as herd replacements, 2.963 million were expected to calve this year, up 42,000, or 1.44%, from 2.921 million a year ago.
The feeder cattle supply outside feedlots was pegged at 24.498 million head, up 218,000, or 0.90%, from 24.280 million last year.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers last week ranged from $233.00 per cwt to $240.00, compared with the previous week’s range of $232.66 to $237.00 per cwt. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $365.91 per cwt to $371.92, compared with $365.05 to $371.88.
The USDA choice cutout Friday was down $2.10 per cwt at $365.56 while select was up $1.22 at $361.94. The choice/select spread narrowed to $3.62 from $6.94 with 75 loads of fabricated product and 21 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef as $412.40 per cwt, and 50% beef was $152.13.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $0.95 to $1.10 a bushel over the Mar corn contract, which settled at $4.28 1/4, down $0.02 1/2.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Thursday was $370.60 per cwt, up $4.00. This compares with Friday’s Mar contract settlement of $360.27, down $4.85.