As with any transition season (spring and fall) there are many weather unknowns, said Christopher Redmond, assistant meteorologist at Kansas State University, in a K-State Extension release.
El Nino remains the most dominant seasonal driver along with tropical influences for the short term, Redmond said. With on-going drought expansion, despite some moisture in coming weeks, drought is expected to remain and possibly increase.
Temperatures are expected to moderate in the next week, but increased uncertainty remains further out, he said.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
A prominent high pressure has once again built back in across the Central Plains with much warmer than normal temperatures returning, Redmond said.
A prominent high pressure has once again built back in across the Central Plains with much warmer than normal temperatures returning.
Over the first few days of September, the Southern Plains high pressure has expanded back northward again, he said, resulting in the return of substantial warm and dry conditions. This is only making the drought situation that began to expand east in August worse.
Additionally, it was a center point of the September outlook issued by the Climate Prediction Center, Redmond said. There is fairly good confidence in forecasts for warmer-than-normal temperatures and drier-than-normal conditions for Kansas in the near term.
THE FUTURE
The large high pressure was expected to shift west over the next week, Redmond said. This will allow a cold front to drop south into the Plains and stall somewhere in the vicinity of Kansas.
This will bring cooler-than-normal temperatures accompanied by an influx of moisture, he said. While the current outlook suggests the opposite, he said to keep in mind that it averages over the entire month. It doesn’t represent singular events.
The current CPC outlooks beyond this weekend also hint at this pattern change remaining for the following week as well, Redmond said. This brings hope that moisture won’t be as sparse as in recent weeks and that substantial heat may be kept south and west thanks to the persistent stalled front.
Precipitation through the period likely will be in the form of thunderstorm complexes, he said. These can drop substantial amounts of rain in isolated areas – but also miss many others.
Therefore, widespread rainfall to overcome drought is not expected, Redmond said.
In fact, looking out further, the CPC has recognized that Central Plains drought is likely to expand during the fall months, he said. This is unfortunate news for water supply concerns in eastern Kansas that really need a positive longer-term influx to improve stream flows and reservoir levels.
However, that would be a good result for harvesters that need ample dry conditions to get in the field, Redmond said.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $179.00 per cwt to $185.11, compared with last week’s range of $179.00 to $185.93 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $284.23 per cwt to $289.11, compared with $280.56 to $290.72.
The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was down $1.91 per cwt at $313.57 while select was off $1.93 at $287.61. The choice/select spread widened to $25.96 from $25.94 with 99 loads of fabricated product and 53 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.50 to $1.70 a bushel over the Dec corn contract, which settled at $4.85 3/4 a bushel, down $0.00 1/2.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Tuesday was $247.49 per cwt, down $0.32. This compares with Wednesday’s Sep contract settlement of $253.15 per cwt, up $1.77.