After millions of chickens have been culled to control Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza, the US chicken industry is doing everything it can to cash in on the resulting higher prices.
As a result, chicken price prospects are moderating as production increases, the Livestock Marketing Information Center in Denver said in its newsletter Livestock Monitor.
BROILER PRODUCTION UP
Young chicken (broiler) production, at 4.186 billion pounds, was up 86.528 billion, or 2.11%, in January from 4.099 billion a year earlier and up 352.627 million, or 9.20%, from the 2019-2023 average. The LMIC said this was based on a 1% increase in birds processed and a 1% increase in average weights.
Hatchery hen productivity was recovering last year after facing some genetics-related obstacles in prior years, the LMIC said. A graph of monthly average broiler-type layer productivity using USDA data showed the number of chicks hatched per layer had a general increase over the year with only three months of setbacks from the previous month.
The number of chicks hatched per layer in January averaged 3.19, up 0.17, or 5.63%, from 3.02 a year earlier and up 0.07, or 2.24%, from the previous five-year average of 3.12.
QUARTERLY HATCHERY OUTPUT
Hatchery output in the last quarter of 2024 was up close to 4% from the prior year, even though the number of hens in the hatchery flock numbered 1% fewer than a year earlier, the LMIC said. These hens were healthier and younger, though, and this condition is expected to persist in the first half of 2025.
Placements of young hens into the hatchery flock last summer were up 2.5% from the prior summer, and these hens will be the core of the hatchery supply flock for the coming spring and summer, supporting favorable productivity in the flock, the LMIC said.
Hatchery output of broiler-type chicks in January was up 3% from a year earlier, the LMIC said. The hatchery output estimate for the first half of 2025 was adjusted upward to be in line with the January hatchery output, leading to more chicken production for the first three quarters and downward adjustments to price forecasts.
PRICE EFFECT
Broiler production this year was expected to be up slightly more than 2% from about 1%, the LMIC said. 2026’s broiler production estimate was about unchanged in actual terms from the prior forecast.
The increase in chicken production could keep retail chicken prices from moving much this year, staying close to the $2.40-$2.45 a pound range reported by the USDA’s Economic Research Service in its Meat Price Spreads report, the LMIC said, versus the previous forecast in the $2.50-$2.60 per pound range.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $197.87 per cwt to $198.13, compared with last week’s range of $197.00 to $203.12 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $313.54 per cwt to $314.20, compared with $310.62 to $313.95.
The USDA choice cutout Monday was up $2.68 per cwt at $317.58 while select was up $1.15 at $306.95. The choice/select spread widened to $10.53 from $9.10 with 69 loads of fabricated product and 18 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $378.85 per cwt, and 50% beef was $106.54.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged to up $0.02at $1.20 to $1.32 a bushel over the May corn contract, which settled at $4.72, up $0.02 3/4.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Friday was $273.95 per cwt, up $0.18. This compares with Monday’s Mar contract settlement of $277.05, up $0.07.