Going from not being a player to the largest beef importer in the last two decades, China’s importance to world beef trade has exploded, said Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension livestock marketing specialist, in a letter called Cow-Calf Corner.
Starting about 2013, rising beef consumption in China began to exceed domestic beef production leading to significant beef imports, Peel said.
PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION STILL LOW
Although China’s per capita beef consumption remains relatively low, roughly 13 pounds compared to 59 pounds in the US, the large population means small increases represent large amounts of beef in total, he said. As a result, China/HK quickly became the largest beef importing country, surpassing the US by 2017. As recently as 2022, China/HK accounted for more than 35% of global beef imports.
Part of the growth in China/HK’s beef imports included increased exports of US beef, Peel said. Hong Kong was a significant US beef market in the 2010s, representing as much as 16% of total US beef exports and was the number three export market.
It was generally recognized that a portion of exports to Hong Kong were transshipped into China, he said. After the US achieved official access to China, beef exports began to grow, with exports to Hong Kong decreasing as expected.
2025 TARIFFS
In 2025, with tariffs in place and US access to China revoked, exports to China/HK decreased sharply, although beef exports to Hong Kong increased to slightly offset the decrease, Peel said. The China/HK share of US beef exports dropped from 18.7% (third largest) to 10.4% and fourth place among beef export destinations.
While China/HK quickly grew to be a major US beef export market after 2020, the US share of total China/HK beef imports has been relatively small, he said. The US share of total beef imports in China/HK peaked at 8.8% in 2022 and dropped to 3.7% in 2025.
There is no doubt that China/HK generally represents significant beef export potential for the US in the absence of political barriers, Peel said.
Decreased beef exports to China/HK accounted for 68% of the total decrease in US beef exports in 2025, Peel said. The effect of this loss in US beef market was largely unrecognized simply because the domestic US market was so strong and trending higher.
Under different market circumstances, the effect would be much more evident, he said. Part of the future prospects for herd rebuilding and increased beef production in the US will depend on maintaining and building robust beef export markets, and China/HK will be a key component.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $257.73 per cwt to $258.13, compared with last week’s range of $256.34 to $262.23 per cwt. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $403.94 per cwt to $404.16, compared with $403.95 to $409.71.
The USDA choice cutout Monday was down $0.50 per cwt at $392.20 while select was down $4.60 at $378.09. The choice/select spread widened to $14.11, from $10.01 with 99 loads of fabricated product and 17 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef as $463.01 per cwt, and 50% beef was $198.42.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged to up $0.05 at $1.20 to $1.45 a bushel over the Jul corn contract, which settled at $4.18 3/4 a bushel, up $0.01 1/4.
No live cattle contracts were tendered for delivery Monday.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Friday was $367.01 per cwt, up $5.63. This compares with Monday’s Aug contract settlement of $350.70, down $3.20.