The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service said in its monthly Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade report that 2024 China beef, pork and chicken imports were forecast at 3 million tonnes less than the 2020 banner year.
China’s share of global beef, pork and chicken exports was expected to account for only 17% of the total, down from 25%, the 2020 peak.
GLOBAL EXPORTS DOWN SLIGHTLY
Global meat exports have contracted only 1% from 2020, but China’s share of those exports has plunged by a third, driven by a forecast 64% drop in pork imports between 2020 and 2024. The sharp decline in China meat imports forced exporters to shift to other markets and has led to increased competition.
In some cases, countries’ loss of market share likely contributed to reduced production. In 2024, China beef imports were forecast to be down 4% as consumers seek cheaper proteins.
Additionally, China’s domestic beef supplies remain high following a buildup in stocks in 2023 following weaker-than-expected post-COVID recovery. Although China’s share of world beef exports increased rapidly from 2017 to 2022, China’s share in 2024 was forecast to be 5% less than 2023.
US IMPORTS UP
As China beef imports decline, US imports will rise as domestic beef production was expected to be the lowest since 2018, given continued contraction in the US cattle herd and steady domestic demand.
US beef imports were expected to account for 15% of global beef trade, up from 14% in 2023 and more than offsetting reduced China beef imports.
CHINA PORK EXPORTS SEEN LOWER
Similar to beef imports, 2024 China pork imports were forecast to decline because of high stocks. Combined with continued strong domestic pork production, China pork imports were expected to shrink 1%.
China was expected to account for only 18% of global pork trade in 2024, sharply lower than 42% in 2020 when imports surged as a result of a steep curb in domestic production from African Swine Fever.
MEXICO COMES ON STRONG
Although China pork imports continue to wane, Mexico’s pork imports were expected to continue robust growth as consumer preference for pork grows against chicken and beef. Mexico pork imports were forecast to increase 9% in 2024, increasing Mexico’s share of global exports by 1% from 2023, offsetting China’s lower pork imports.
China 2024 chicken meat imports were forecast virtually unchanged from 2023. Weaker domestic consumption and Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza-related import bans continue to hamper available import origins.
China’s chicken meat imports were expected to account for 6% of global chicken meat trade, down from a 2020 high of 8%.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $182.28 per cwt to $185.49, compared with last week’s range of $182.00 to $190.00 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $287.22 per cwt to $292.58, compared with $289.57 to $295.37.
The USDA choice cutout Tuesday was down $2.86 per cwt at $298.02 while select was up $1.30 at $292.64. The choice/select spread narrowed to $5.38 from $9.54 with 87 loads of fabricated product and 24 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The daily weighted average USDA listed wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $349.94 per cwt, and 50% beef was $87.19.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.40 to $1.50 a bushel over the May corn contract, which settled at $4.31 a bushel, down $0.00 1/2.
No live cattle contracts were tendered for delivery Tuesday.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Monday was $241.36 per cwt, up $0.29. This compares with Wednesday’s Apr contract settlement of $240.35, up $0.80.