Weekly USDA choice boxed beef prices fell this week, but remain much higher than a year ago and the 2019-2023 average.
The USDA’s choice boxed beef price also is near the top of this year’s weekly averages, according to USDA data compiled and published by the Livestock Marketing Information Center in Denver. So, things aren’t as bad as they might seem by looking at this week’s daily prices.
A LOOK AT THE NUMBERS
The weekly average choice boxed beef price last week was $404.77 per cwt, down $8.83, or 2.13%, from this year’s high of $413.60. This was up $97.53, or 31.7%, from $307.24 per cwt in the same week a year ago and up $139.32, or 52.5%, from the previous five-year average of $265.45.
Traders may have become distracted by the latest boxed beef price rally, which went to the 2025 high from the most recent low of $363.69 per cwt the first week of August. This came to a rally of $49.91 per cwt in just five weeks, a pace that could not be sustained.
Typically, though, the USDA’s weekly choice boxed beef price tends to go sideways to lower into the end of the year. The waves on a bar chart tend to have good support but peaks tend to decline into January and February.
With that in mind, it would not be surprising to see weekly choice boxed-beef prices fade into the winter months before next year’s grilling-season buying begins to pick up.
COW BEEF CUTOUT CONTINUES CLIMBING
The choice boxed beef cutout may have peaked, but the weekly average boxed cow beef cutout value continues to climb. Realistically, though, the cow beef value may have peaked last week, since it was up only $0.15 per cwt from the previous week, and seasonal pressures are coming to bear.
Last week’s USDA cutter cow boxed beef cutout value was $338.97 per cwt, up $0.15, or 0.04%, from $338.82 the previous week, up $48.67, or 16.8%, from $290.30 the previous year and up $129.62, or 61.9%, from the 2019-2023 average of $209.36.
The weekly boxed cow beef cutout value tends to peak the first week of May and then angle downward into January. It also has a somewhat narrow range from about $189 per cwt to $215.
Last year, the value rose to $294.58 per cwt from $204.51 the first week of January before dropping to December’s seasonal low of $254.98. So, there was a much wider price range.
This year, it would not be surprising to see weekly average prices remain higher than last year, even if they do fade seasonally.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $238.00 per cwt to $245.28, compared with last week’s range of $242.51 to $246.00 per cwt. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $377.62 per cwt to $384.43, compared with $381.50 to $385.49.
The USDA choice cutout Thursday was down $2.37 per cwt at $385.81 while select was down $5.06 at $361.31. The choice/select spread widened to $24.50 from $21.81 with 73 loads of fabricated product and 26 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $431.41 per cwt, and 50% beef was $146.94.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.05 to $1.20 a bushel over the Dec corn contract, which settled at $4.23 3/4, down $0.03.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Wednesday was $362.62 per cwt, up $1.26. This compares with Thursday’s Sep contract settlement of $358.17, up $3.15.