Consumer demand for chicken and turkey during the first half of 2025 rose, with first-quarter chicken consumption up 140 million pounds from first-quarter 2024, the Livestock Marketing Information Center said in a report called Livestock Monitor.
Preliminary estimates of second-quarter chicken consumption indicated an increase of about 250 million pounds from a year earlier, the LMIC said.
First-quarter performance was a slowdown from a 430-million-pound, year-over-year gain in the last quarter of 2024, the LMIC said.
Wholesale breast and leg prices ranged from firm to strong, however, leading to favorable profit margins for integrators so far this year when compared with a year ago, the LMIC said.
HATCHERY PLACEMENTS RESTRAINED
Placements of pullets into the hatchery flock was restrained through March, the LMIC said. However, April’s pullet placements were up 9% from a year earlier, providing some reinforcement for expanding chicken production next year beyond what could be expected from the effects of heavier-than-average bird weights.
The combination of a modest increase in the hatchery supply flock with lower feed costs based on five million more corn acres being planted this year leads to an upward adjustment in the forecast for broiler production to 2.4% versus the April projection of 0.8%, the LMIC said. The effect on wholesale chicken prices was not expected to be significant.
TURKEY MARKETS PANICED
Turkey markets were paniced in the last two weeks as wholesale prices for whole birds hit $1.50 a pound, the LMIC said. June’s average price was $1.23 a pound, up from $0.87 in January.
The concern was availability for the last half of the year and specifically the late-year holidays, the LMIC said. As of the end of May, turkey inventories (whole birds, meat and parts) were down 18% from a year earlier.
Normally, the turkey industry likes to finish the year with about 50-60 million pounds of whole birds in cold storage, the LMIC said. At the end of last year, there were 64 million pounds of whole birds in cold storage, and at the end of May, there were 16 million pounds less.
Based on the flow of poults from hatcheries, projected slaughter this summer will be about the same as a year ago, although July and August volumes may be down, the LMIC said. Shortfalls from Avian Influenza will be a major issue.
Also, consumer demand for ground turkey was rising, which will have to be rationed to provide adequate supplies of whole birds for late in the year, the LMIC said. Wholesale turkey breast meat prices cleared $4.50 a pound in the last two weeks after starting the year slightly above $2.00 and may be headed above $5.00.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $233.00 per cwt to $241.92, compared with last week’s range of $230.88 to $241.92 per cwt. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $367.01 per cwt to $375.00, compared with $361.69 to $379.55.
The USDA choice cutout Tuesday was down $3.54 per cwt at $364.19 while select was down $4.37 at $342.48. The choice/select spread widened to $21.71 from $20.88 with 95 loads of fabricated product and 23 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $420.07 per cwt, and 50% beef was $167.88.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.45 to $1.60 a bushel over the Sep corn contract, which settled at $3.89 1/4, down $0.04 1/2.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Monday was $332.20 per cwt, up $2.27. This compares with Tuesday’s Aug contract settlement of $336.20, up $2.67.