Female cattle slaughter remains elevated despite the passing of the new year, and indicates cattle herd liquidation didn’t stop with the fall weanings but continues into 2023, according to USDA slaughter data compiled by the Livestock Marketing Information Center in Denver.
Most of that extra female slaughter is comprised of heifers and dairy cows, but there is some increase over last year and the previous five-year average in beef cows as well.
TOTAL HEIFER SLAUGHTER UP
Total heifer slaughter the third week of January, was 199,692 head, while this was down from the previous week’s 200,928 head, it was up from last year’s 191,024 by 8,668, or 4.54%. However, it was up from the 2017-21 average of 180,389 by 19,303 head, or 10.7%.
Typically, weekly heifer slaughter declines into mid-February before increasing into late March. Last year, though, heifer slaughter didn’t show the usual early year decline but rose, leveled off (sort of) into the late-March seasonal peak at 190,776.
The data doesn’t break down beef versus dairy heifer slaughter, but it can be assumed that nearly all of the heifer kill is comprised of beef breeds. Dairy heifers are aimed at the milking herd from the start.
DAIRY, BEEF COWS INCLUDED
But the same doesn’t hold true for dairy cows.
One might think weekly beef cow slaughter far outstrips dairy cow kills, but it hasn’t been the case this year. Beef cow slaughter the third week of January totaled 76,705 head, while the dairy cow kill that week totaled 70,826 head.
The weekly dairy cow slaughter usually declines into mid-to late February before a small increase in March and a long-term decline into the first week of July. Last year, it peaked seasonally the second week of February at 70,006 head before following the seasonal downtrend into summer.
This year, the weekly dairy cow slaughter continues to rise and already is higher than either last year or the previous five-year average.
The beef cow slaughter for the third week of January, at 76,705 head, represents a slight decline from 78,896 a week earlier, but is more than the 74,473 head reported in the same week a year ago and more than the 60,298 in the 2017-21 average.
In so doing, the weekly beef cow slaughter is establishing itself near last year’s totals.
If cattle herd liquidation is continuing in 2023, it’s likely because of feed shortages, a market analyst said. Plus, drought-stressed pastures cannot just bounce back once rain returns to normal levels. It takes time to rebuild the forage base to a point where it will sustain normal grazing pressure again.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $158.61 to $158.85 per cwt, compared with last week’s range of $155.57 to $157.50. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $249.67 to $250.60 per cwt, versus $244.42 to $249.79.
The USDA choice cutout Monday was up $1.83 per cwt at $266.57 while select was up $2.11 at $253.72. The choice/select spread narrowed to $12.85 from $13.13 with 73 loads of fabricated product and 31 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were down $0.08 to $0.10 at $1.57 to $1.70 a bushel over the Mar corn contract. Bids in Kansas were steady at $0.75 over Mar, which settled at $6.79 a bushel, up $0.01 1/2.
No live cattle contracts were tendered for delivery Monday.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Friday was $181.29 per cwt, down $0.16. This compares with Monday’s Mar contract settlement of $187.70 per cwt, up $1.60.