The US’s inventory of all hogs and pigs on Dec. 1 was 73.1 million head, the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service said in its Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report Friday.
That was down 1.3 million, or 1.78%, from 74.4 million a year earlier, and down 566,000, or 0.77%, from 73.7 million on Sep. 1, the USDA said.
The total number of all hogs and pigs in inventory on Dec.1 last peaked in 2019 at 76.8 million head.
MARKET HOG INVENTORY UP SLIGHTLY
The market hog inventory, at 67.0 million head, was down 1.4 million, or 1.98%, from 68.3 million last year, and down 567,000, or 0.84%, from 67.5 million last quarter. The Dec. 1 market hog inventory last peaked in 2019 at 70.3 million head.
A market analyst said the lower number of market hogs on Dec. 1 implies lower slaughter numbers and lower pork production, for the first quarter of 2023, at least.
Historical data show that weekly hog slaughter trends lower in the first half of every year. Despite being raised indoors, the physiology of hogs tends to make more slaughter-ready hogs available in the second half of the year, the analyst said.
Available second-half inventories of slaughter hogs also depends on other variables like disease, or environmental factors that affect death loss and growth rates through the year, the analyst said.
The Dec. 1 breeding inventory, at 6.15 million head, was up 29,000, or 0.47%, from 6.13 million last year, and up 2,000, or 0.03%, from 6.15 million the previous quarter. This number also last peaked in 2019 at 65.5 million head.
PIG CROP DOWN
The September-November 2022 pig crop, at 33.7 million head, was down 432,000, or 1.27%, from 34.1 million in 2021, NASS said.
Sows farrowing during that period totaled 3.00 million head, down 45,000, or 1.48%, from 3.05 million in 2021, the report said. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 49% of the breeding herd.
The average number of pigs saved per litter was a record 11.22 for the September-November period, compared with 11.19 last year, the USDA said. This continued a pattern of quarterly record numbers of pigs saved begun with the March-May quarter.
Hog producers said they intended to farrow 2.95 million sows in the December-February quarter, up 28,000, or 0.96%, from 2.92 million in the same period that ended with February of this year, the USDA report said. This also would be up 18,000, or 0.61%, from the previous year’s quarter of 2.93 million. However, it would be down from the last peak for the quarter at 3.18 million in 2020.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $157.10 to $158.70 per cwt, compared with last week’s range of $156.04 to $157.34. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $244.02 to $245.80 per cwt, versus $243.79 to $249.01.
The USDA choice cutout Tuesday was up $8.09 per cwt at $280.04 while select was up $0.17 at $245.64. The choice/select spread widened to $34.40 from $26.48 with 63 loads of fabricated product and 15 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were steady at $1.90 to $2.10 a bushel over the Mar futures and for southwest Kansas were unchanged at $1.00 over Mar, which settled at $6.74 3/4, up $0.08 1/2.
No cattle contracts were tendered for delivery Tuesday.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Friday was $176.37 per cwt down $0.38. This compares with Tuesday’s Jan contract settlement of $183.10, down $0.90.