Drop In Frozen Red Meat Enhances On-Feed Implications

As if to reinforce the bullish aspects of Friday’s USDA Cattle on Feed report, the USDA Cold Storage report, which was released at the same time, showed total red meat supplies in freezers June 30 were down about 4% from the previous month and down 7% from last year.

Total frozen poultry supplies were up 4% from the previous month but down 4% from a year ago.

 

BEEF STOCKS DOWN

 

Total pounds of beef in freezers, at 395.813 million pounds, were down 11.994 million, or 2.94%, from 407.813 million the previous month and down 3.553 million, or 0.89%, from 399.372 million last year.

Of that, 354.304 million pounds were listed as “boneless” beef, down 10.312 million, or 2.83%, from 364.616 million a month ago and down 6.568 million, or 1.82%, from 360.872 million a year ago.

Another 41.314 million pounds were classed as “beef cuts,” down 1.883 million, or 4.36%, from 43.197 million in the May report but up 2.814 million, or 7.31%, from 38.500 million a year ago.

 

PORK SUPPLIES ALSO DOWN

 

Frozen pork supplies, at 422.290 million pounds, were down 28.466 million, or 6.32%, from 450.756 million the previous month and down 52.727 million, or 11.1%, from 475.017 million last year.

Stocks of pork bellies, at 44.149 million pounds, were down 8.864 million, or 16.7%, from 53.013 million last month and down 16.922 million, or 27.7%, from 61.071 million last year.

Another 110.921 million pounds were frozen hams, up 3.055 million, or 2.83%, from 107.866 million a month earlier but down 17.299 million, or 13.5%, from 128.220 million a year earlier.

Pork loins in cold storage totaled 36.803 million pounds, up 265,000, or 0.73%, from 36.538 million in May but down 91.417 million, or 71.3%, from 128.220 million in June 2024.

 

CHICKEN STOCKS RISE

 

Total stocks of chicken, at 764.761 million pounds, were up 11.014 million, or 1.46%, from 753.747 million the previous month and up 18.982 million, or 2.54%, from 745.779 million last year.

Of that, 227.113 million pounds were breasts and breast meat, up 4.831 million, or 2.17%, from 222.282 million last month and up from 206.367 million last year.

Another 55.008 million pounds were leg quarters, up 1.325 million, or 2.47%, from 53.683 million a month earlier and up 341,000, or 0.63%, from 54.667 million a year earlier.

Total pounds of turkey in freezers, at 375.525 million pounds, were up 28.838 million, or 8.32%, from 346.687 million last month but down 70.624 million, or 15.8%, from 446.149 million on June 30, 2024.

 

CATTLE, BEEF RECAP

 

The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers last week ranged from $230.88 per cwt to $241.92, compared with the previous week’s range of $229.17 to $241.74 per cwt.  FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $361.69 per cwt to $369.83, compared with $350.68 to $378.64.

The USDA choice cutout Friday was down $1.41 per cwt at $366.68 while select was off $2.13 at $344.87.  The choice/select spread widened to $21.81 from $21.09 with 88 loads of fabricated product and 17 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.

The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $418.36 per cwt, and 50% beef was $198.90.

The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.45 to $1.60 a bushel over the Sep corn contract, which settled at $3.99 1/2, down $0.02 1/4.

The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Thursday was $328.83 per cwt, up $2.65.  This compares with Friday’s Aug contract settlement of $331.37, up $2.47.