Retail sales across the entire US economy were resilient through the first four months of the year, but food sector sales beginning in March were advancing at a slower pace than was seen since the pandemic, said the Livestock Marketing Information Center in its Livestock Monitor.
Economy wide, retail sales were up close to 5% from a year ago in March and April, the LMIC said. This followed a slow start in January with only a 3% increase.
GROCERY SALES STARTED FIRM
Grocery store sales started out the year at a +2% growth pace and then slipped to a decline from the prior February but have moved back into positive ground, barely, for March and April, the LMIC said. This is the slowest four-month growth pace for grocery stores since late 2023 and into early 2024.
Foodservice markets recorded bigger adjustments in sales growth than grocery stores for the first four months of the year, the LMIC said. Foodservice and drinking place sales held close to 5% gains from a year earlier in January and February. Sales in March dipped to a 1.5% gain, and the preliminary reading for April showed a 3% gain from April 2025.
That compares to the annual gains in 2024 and 2025 that were up at a 5% pace, the LMIC said. Breaking out the components of the foodservice sector, restaurant sales trends in the first three months of 2026 showed about the same growth figures as the entire foodservice sector, although the dip from February to March was slightly more pronounced as institutional foodservice was steadier.
Limited-service restaurants (fast food, etc.) sales, which posted a 3% gain in 2025 following a 5% gain in 2024, maintained a 3% gain in January and February, the LMIC said. March growth fell to a 0.5% increase from a year earlier.
FULL-SERVICE RESTAURANTS SHINE
Full-service restaurant sales were the highlight of the food economy in the last several years, the LMIC said. Full-service restaurant sales were up 8% in 2025 from 2024, following a 6% gain in 2024 from 2023.
Year-over-year full-service restaurant sales gains from May to August last year averaged 10% gains, which probably played a role in the strong demand for beef seen during those months, the LMIC said.
January and February full-service restaurant sales this year topped a year earlier by 7%, the LMIC said. The March sales tally was only up 2%, one of the bigger month-to-month slowdowns in the last few years.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $256.71 per cwt to $260.37, compared with last week’s range of $256.34 to $262.23 per cwt. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $403.28 per cwt to $408.57, compared with $403.95 to $409.71.
The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was up $0.38 per cwt at $393.28 while select was down $1.23 at $375.70. The choice/select spread widened to $17.58, from $15.97 with 82 loads of fabricated product and 25 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef as $458.25 per cwt, and 50% beef was $183.60.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.20 to $1.45 a bushel over the Jul corn contract, which settled at $4.19 a bushel, down $0.00 1/2.
No live cattle contracts were tendered for delivery Wednesday.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Tuesday was $368.06 per cwt, down $0.14. This compares with Wednesday’s Aug contract settlement of $354.37, up $0.22.