November cattle slaughter was higher year over year, attributable to having one additional slaughter day and a faster weekly average pace of fed cattle slaughter the USDA’s Economic Research Service said Wednesday in the monthly Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook.
Likewise, the pace of non-fed, weekday cattle slaughter was higher but lower on Saturdays, the ERS said. The preliminary estimated federally inspected cattle slaughter for November was up 5.4% from a year ago.
BEEF PRODUCTION ESTIMATE RAISED
According to the USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service Livestock Slaughter report, the actual slaughter for beef and dairy cows for the weeks of Nov. 1 through 27 were up 5.9% and 2.3% compared with a year ago. More noteworthy was the increase in heifer slaughter, which was up 3.8% during the same weeks.
As a result, minor adjustments were made to the ERS fed cattle slaughter estimate, the report said.
However, steer and heifer carcass weights increased in November, approaching 2020 levels, the ERS said. So, forecast 2021 beef production was raised on higher expected fed cattle slaughter and slightly heavier carcass weights.
December’s beef production forecast totaled 27.895 billion pounds, up 10 million from last month, the ERS said. The 2022 beef production forecast was left unchanged at 27 billion pounds.
FED, FEEDER STEER PRICE ESTIMATE RAISED
November’s average price for all grades of live steers sold in the 5-area marketing region was reported at $133.39 per cwt, $9.06 higher than October and $24.54 higher than November 2020’s average, the report said.
For the week ended Dec. 12, fed steer prices averaged $139.69 per cwt, down $0.75 from the previous week, the ERS said.
The fourth-quarter fed steer price forecast was raised $5.00 to $133.00 per cwt on continuing beef demand strength and tight cattle supply, the report said. These conditions resulted in the 2021 annual fed steer forecast being raised $1.25 per cwt to $122.56 from October and the 2022 annual forecast raised $5.00 to $135.00.
November’s average price for 750- to 800-pound feeder steers at the Oklahoma City National Stockyards was $159.74 per cwt, up $6.22 from October and $21.52 per cwt from November 2020, the ERS said.
For the week of Dec. 6, the average feeder steer price was $168.52 per cwt, up $4.47 from a week earlier, the report said. The fourth-quarter forecast was revised up $5.00 per cwt to $159.00 from last month on current price strength and improved prospects for winter grazing.
The 2021 and 2022 annual forecasts were raised to $146.80 and $159.00 per cwt, respectively.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $140.22 to $140.38 per cwt, compared with last week’s range of $140.55 to $143.75. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $221.21 to $221.74 per cwt, versus $219.10 to $222.88.
The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was down $0.46 per cwt at $260.26, while select was off $1.35 at $247.45. The choice/select spread widened to $12.81 from $11.92 with 124 loads of fabricated product and 50 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA reported Wednesday that basis bids for corn from livestock feeding operations in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.30 to $1.40 a bushel over the Mar futures and for southwest Kansas were unchanged at $0.40 over Mar, which settled at $5.85 3/4 a bushel, down $0.04 1/2.
No delivery intentions were posted against the Dec live cattle contract Wednesday.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Tuesday was $161.77 per cwt unchanged. This compares with Wednesday’s Jan contract settlement of $163.42 per cwt, down $1.15.